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Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-16 22:30:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 162030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.0W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.0W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 120.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.1N 126.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.3N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.9N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.2N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 121.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-08-16 16:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161451 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Josephine Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 Strong vertical wind shear has continued to take a toll on Josephine, with the exposed center continuing to race well ahead of the primary convective mass. A new burst of convection has developed a little closer to the center within the past couple of hours, but with the continued loss of organization the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. With strong shear forecast to prevail over the cyclone during the next few days, continued weakening is expected and Josephine will likely become a remnant low within 24 hours or dissipate by opening into a trough of low pressure. Although the shear could lessen somewhat in a few days, it appears that there will not be much left of the system to take advantage of those conditions. As a result, the new NHC forecast calls for the dissipation of the remnant low by 96 hours. Josephine jogged a bit westward overnight, but the longer term motion is 285/11 kt. The system is forecast to turn northwestward over the next 24-36 hours as the ridge over the western Atlantic weakens due to an approaching trough of low pressure. As the low- to mid-level trough moves offshore of the southeastern United States, this should cause Josephine or it remnants to turn northward on Tuesday. The updated track forecast is a little to the left of the previous advisory, primarily to more southward and westward initial position, however, it still lies near the middle of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 20.4N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 21.3N 66.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 22.5N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 23.9N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 25.5N 69.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 26.8N 69.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 28.2N 68.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-08-16 16:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 161450 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 65.0W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 65.0W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 64.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.3N 66.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.5N 67.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.5N 69.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 26.8N 69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 28.2N 68.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 65.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Information (.shp)
2020-08-16 16:48:12| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 14:48:12 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-16 16:47:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 161446 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 At the moment the depression is nearly devoid of convection, except for a very small weakening burst over 100 n mi from the center. In fact, there has not been any deep convection within 50 n mi of the center since yesterday, and this convection has been sporadic. The available Dvorak T-numbers only support 25 kt. However, given that an earlier ASCAT overpass had a few vectors with higher values, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The depression is barely fitting the definition of a tropical cyclone due to the lack of persistent organized deep convection. If the system is not able to generate sustained organized convection, it could become a post-tropical remnant low at any time. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest this lack of persistent convection may continue, and therefore the official forecast no longer keeps the system a tropical cyclone through 5 days. The official intensity forecast is generally in line with the intensity consensus aids throughout the 5 day time period, but makes the cyclone post-tropical in a couple of days. It should be noted that the timing of the system becoming post-tropical is highly uncertain and could happen much sooner or later than indicated. The cyclone is moving slowly north-northwestward at 3 kt. A weak low- to -mid level ridge is forecast to build north of the cyclone over the next couple of days. This should result in a slow motion while the depression turns to the northwest, then west. By midweek, a more west-southwestward motion is anticipated. The latest NHC forecast is is in between the previous one and the track consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 13.7N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 14.3N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 14.3N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 13.9N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 13.4N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z 12.2N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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