je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-06-23 10:15:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 427 WTNT24 KNHC 230815 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 0900 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 63.4W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 63.4W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 40.0N 61.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 41.4N 59.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 45.3N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 63.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
advisory
depression
forecast
Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-06-23 04:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230237 TCDAT4 Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 The cyclone has little or no deep convection near its center, and remains situated beneath an upper-level low. Therefore, the system is still a subtropical cyclone and the intensity is kept at 30 kt in agreement with the most recent satellite classification from TAFB. The 30-kt intensity was also supported by recent scatterometer data. There is a small window of opportunity for strengthening since the system should remain over a relatively warm Gulf Stream eddy for 12 hours or so. Thereafter, a weakening trend is expected to begin and the system should make the transition to an extratropical cyclone over cooler waters in 36 hours or sooner. The global models indicate that the system should open up into a trough in a couple of days so the official forecast shows dissipation by 72 hours. It would not be surprising if the system meets its demise sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS guidance. The motion continues east-northeastward, or 060/9 kt. Over the next few days, the cyclone should remain embedded in a branch of west-southwesterlies that is split off from the main mid-latitude flow. There is good agreement in the track guidance that the system will turn northeastward with some acceleration during the next 48-60 hours. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is also close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 38.7N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 39.2N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 40.3N 60.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 42.0N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/0000Z 44.0N 55.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/1200Z 46.0N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
depression
forecast
Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-06-23 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 230234 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 0300 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 64.6W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 64.6W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 39.2N 62.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 40.3N 60.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 42.0N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 44.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 46.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.7N 64.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
advisory
depression
forecast
Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-06-22 22:45:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 276 WTNT44 KNHC 222045 TCDAT4 Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 The non-tropical low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been following for the past couple of days off of the U.S. east coast has developed enough organized convection near the center to be classified as subtropical depression. The subtropical status is due to the low-level circulation center being co-located beneath an upper-level cold low as seen in water vapor imagery. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on earlier ASCAT wind data indicating numerous surface wind vectors of 26-28 kt in the southern semicircle, along with a TAFB subtropical satellite classification of ST1.5/25-30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 075/08 kt. Subtropical Depression Four is located north of a deep-layer ridge and is being influenced by weak westerly mid- to upper-level flow. The cyclone is forecast by all of the global and regional models to move east-northeastward tonight and then turn northeastward on Tuesday. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected Tuesday night through Thursday when the system is forecast to be located over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. The cyclone should be absorbed by a larger extratropical low or dissipate on Thursday. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the simple consensus aids TVCN and GFEX and the NOAA-HCCA corrected consensus. The cyclone is beginning to move over a ridge of higher SSTs of 26.0-26.5 deg C in the northern extent of the Gulf Stream. The forecast track takes the subtropical depression down the length of the axis of warmer water during the next 12-18 h, so there is the potential for the cyclone to become a subtropical storm during that time, especially given the large pool of cold air aloft, with 200-mb temperatures of near -58 deg C and 500-mb temperatures of about -10 deg C which is creating a lot of instability. After the system moves off of the warm ridge and into sharply cooler water around 36 hours or so, gradual weakening is expected, with transition to an extratropical cyclone forecast by 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the consensus models ICON, IVCN, and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 38.2N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 38.5N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 39.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 40.5N 59.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 42.5N 56.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1800Z 47.8N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
depression
forecast
Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-06-22 22:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 22 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 222040 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 2100 UTC MON JUN 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 65.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 65.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 66.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 39.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 40.5N 59.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 42.5N 56.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 47.8N 50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
advisory
depression
forecast
Sites : [634] [635] [636] [637] [638] [639] [640] [641] [642] [643] [644] [645] [646] [647] [648] [649] [650] [651] [652] [653] next »