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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-06-25 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 There has been little change in the organization of the depression since the previous advisory. Deep convection that was located over the southern portion of the circulation waned during the early afternoon, but a new convective burst has developed within the past couple of hours to the south of the exposed low-level center. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and the most recent Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although the depression is moving over warm waters and within an area of low wind shear, water vapor imagery indicates that mid-level dry air is located near and just north of the cyclone which is likely the cause of the lack of convection over the northern portion of the circulation. As a result, only modest strengthening is anticipated over the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, dry air and gradually decreasing SSTs along the forecast track are likely to cause weakening. The latest intensity guidance is slightly lower than the previous cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new official intensity forecast is in best agreement with the latest HFIP corrected consensus aid. The depression has been moving more westward than expected, with an initial motion estimate of 285/8 kt. A cut-off low well to the north-northwest of the depression is expected to weaken the deep-layer ridge that is currently steering the cyclone. This should cause the depression to turn northwestward on Thursday, with this motion continuing over the next couple of days. By 60-72 h, the weakening tropical cyclone should turn back toward the west as it is steered by the low-level flow. Later in the period, the remnant low is forecast to turn west-southwestward within the trade wind flow over the central Pacific. The latest track model envelope has shifted somewhat southward, which has required a southward adjustment to the official forecast. The new NHC forecast lies between the previous advisory and the latest consensus aids, along the northern portion of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 10.6N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 10.9N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 11.4N 136.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 12.1N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 12.5N 138.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 12.7N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 12.8N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z 12.5N 145.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 11.5N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-06-25 04:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 25 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 250233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0300 UTC THU JUN 25 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 134.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 134.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 134.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 10.9N 135.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.4N 136.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.1N 137.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.5N 138.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.7N 139.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.8N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 12.5N 145.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 11.5N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 134.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-06-24 22:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242031 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Three-E has a small and well-defined circulation with the center just to the northeast of the main convective mass. A recent ASCAT-B overpass showed 25-30 kt winds to the southeast of the center and 20-25 kt winds in other parts of the circulation. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is now 290/8. There is no change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the northwest and west. This evolution should cause the depression to move northwestward between 12-60 h. After that, the cyclone should be weakening with the low-level trade winds becoming the main steering mechanism, resulting in a west-southwestward motion for the balance of the forecast period. There is some spread in the forward speed between the faster GFS and the slower UKMET/ECMWF, and the new official forecast compromises between them in a track that is near, but a little faster than, the consensus models. There is also no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm during that time. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening, and most of the global models forecast dissipation near 120 h. The intensity guidance for this advisory is weaker than the previous guidance, so the new intensity forecast, which is little changed, now lies near the upper end of the guidance through 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 10.6N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 11.0N 134.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 11.5N 135.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 12.2N 136.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 12.9N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 13.3N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 13.4N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z 12.0N 149.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-06-24 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 242031 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 2100 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 133.8W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 133.8W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 133.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.0N 134.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.5N 135.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.2N 136.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.9N 137.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.3N 138.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.4N 140.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 12.0N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 133.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-06-24 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241457 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 The small low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has acquired enough organized convection near and southwest of the center to be designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression 3-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 275/6. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the northwest and west. This evolution should cause the depression to move northwestward between 24-72 h. After that, the cyclone should be weakening with the low-level trade winds becoming the main steering mechanism, resulting in a west-southwestward motion for the balance of the forecast period. The official track forecast is near the various consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm during that time. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening trend, and most of the global models forecast dissipation near 120 h. The forecast peak intensity of 45 kt is near the upper end of the intensity guidance, with the remainder of the forecast near the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 10.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 10.5N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 11.0N 135.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 12.6N 137.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 13.2N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 13.5N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 12.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

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