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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 26
2020-06-08 04:49:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080249 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.2W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 180SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.2W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 89.8W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.6N 91.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.1N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.9N 89.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 50.8N 83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 52.8N 79.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 90.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-06-07 22:48:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 072048 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 At least two low-level vortices have been noted rotating cyclonically within the broad inner-core circulation, with one swirl located southeast of the advisory position approaching the Mississippi Delta and the other swirl located inland to the northwest of Grand Isle, Louisiana. The larger swirl in the southeastern quadrant will likely become the dominant low-level circulation center later tonight after that feature moves inland and frictional convergence tightens up the broad inner-core wind field a little bit. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on data from surface observations and NOAA Doppler radar velocity data from Slidell and Mobile, along with a satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 355/06 kt due to the uncertainty in the center position. Some erratic motion will still be possible for the next 6-12 hours due to the dumb-belling motion of the multiple low-level circulations. Overall, however, the models remain in excellent agreement on Cristobal turning north-northwestward tonight and continuing that motion through 24 hours. By Monday night, a turn toward north is forecast, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of an approaching frontal system. The cyclone is expected to slow down on days 3 and 4 during extratropical transition. The new NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous track forecast, and lies down the center of the the tightly packed consensus models. No significant intensification is expected before landfall occurs late this afternoon or early evening primarily due to Cristobal's broad wind field. However, intrusions of dry air could result in wind gusts of 55-60 kt in some of the stronger squalls. After landfall, only slow weakening is expected due to the cyclone's large wind field. In the 60-96 hour period, some slight strengthening to gale-force strength is forecast due to strong baroclinic forcing during the extratropical transition, and a long southerly to south-southwesterly wind fetch blowing across Lake Michigan. The official intensity closely follows a blend of the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global models. Cristobal remains a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, since the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue to spread along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans this evening, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across north Florida into this evening, diminishing overnight. Heavy rain will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast this afternoon and into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal from tonight through Monday. This heavy rain will move up the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday, then across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 29.1N 89.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 30.9N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 33.4N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 36.7N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1800Z 40.5N 90.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0600Z 45.2N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1800Z 48.7N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z 53.2N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-06-07 22:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 420 WTNT23 KNHC 072040 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 89.9W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 89.9W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 89.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.9N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 170SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.4N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.7N 91.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.5N 90.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 45.2N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 48.7N 85.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 53.2N 81.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 89.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-06-07 16:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071445 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 90.0W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 90.0W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 89.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.2N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.6N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.2N 92.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.9N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.5N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 47.8N 87.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 52.6N 83.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 90.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-06-07 10:45:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070845 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 Cristobal continues to resemble a subtropical cyclone more than a tropical cyclone. The convection near the center remains limited, although it has become a little better organized during the past several hours. In addition, aircraft and scatterometer data show that the radius of maximum winds remains at or above 90 n mi. These data also suggest that a 45 kt intensity may be a bit generous, but since the central pressure remains near 993 mb the intensity has not changed for this advisory. The initial motion is 360/10 between a deep-layer ridge to Cristobal's east and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should continue for 12-18 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest due to a mid-latitude ridge passing north of the cyclone. After 36 h, a turn toward the north and north-northeast is expected as Cristobal or its remnants encounter the mid-latitude westerlies. There are no important changes to either the track guidance or the forecast track since the last advisory. The broad nature of the cyclone and significant dry air entrainment is likely to prevent intensification before landfall, and the new intensity forecast holds the intensity constant at 45 kt until that time. Weakening is expected after landfall, with Cristobal weakening below tropical-storm strength just after the 24 h point. The new intensity forecast shows slight re-intensification as the system become extratropical at 72-96 h in agreement with the global model guidance. Cristobal remains a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds should spread along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans today, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across north Florida this morning, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal from Sunday night into Monday. This heavy rain will move up the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday, then across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 27.3N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 28.7N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 30.8N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1800Z 33.3N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0600Z 36.6N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1800Z 40.9N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0600Z 46.0N 89.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 52.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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