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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-06-06 04:39:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 025 WTNT43 KNHC 060239 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Cristobal this evening and they have found that the storm is a little stronger. The pressure has dropped to 998 mb and a combination of flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data support a wind speed of about 40 kt. Cristobal continues to have a large and asymmetric appearance with most of the showers and thunderstorms and strong winds to the north and east of the center. The storm is moving northward at a slightly faster pace, about 12 kt. A south to north steering flow between a deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico should cause Cristobal to continue moving generally northward for the next couple of days. This motion should take the center of the storm across the Louisiana coast by Sunday night. Around the landfall time, a slight turn to the northwest is expected as a mid-level ridge moves across the central and eastern U.S. Overall, the models are in fairly good agreement and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. This prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Cristobal will likely continue to slowly strengthen until it makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast in a couple of days. However, the broad structure of the cyclone, dry air on the west side of the system, and moderate wind shear should prevent a significant amount of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is close to the various consensus models. Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it makes landfall. Therefore, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast path as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well to the east of the center. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts for another day or so. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible along the Florida Big Bend and in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late Saturday night along the northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 4. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller tributaries, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.7N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 24.1N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 25.9N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 27.7N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 29.5N 90.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 08/1200Z 31.7N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/0000Z 34.4N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0000Z 42.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-06-05 22:52:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052051 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 The center of the tropical cyclone has moved into the Gulf of Mexico to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Earlier scatterometer and surface synoptic data indicated that the system had already re-strengthened into a tropical storm. The system has been exhibiting fairly well-defined convective banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. However, the central convection is minimal at this time and upper-level outflow is being restricted over the southwestern quadrant due to a trough over the Bay of Campeche. The current intensity is kept at 35 kt in agreement with the earlier observations. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours, which should provide a good estimate of Cristobal's strength. Although the cyclone will be traversing fairly warm waters during the next couple of days, dry mid-level air and some southwesterly shear is expected to limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is about the same as the previous ones and close to the model consensus. Cristobal has moved a little faster over the past several hours, and the current motion is estimated to be northward at 11 kt. For the next couple of days, the cyclone should continue to move generally northward through a weakness between subtropical high pressure areas. A bend toward the north-northwest is forecast just after landfall on the northern Gulf Coast due to the slight building of a ridge to the northeast of Cristobal. The size of the wind field and timing of the new track forecast require the issuance of storm surge and tropical storm warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast at this time. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible along the Florida Big Bend and in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late Saturday night along the northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 4. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller tributaries, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.4N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 24.9N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 26.7N 90.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 28.5N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 30.4N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1800Z 32.8N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1800Z 39.5N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 10/1800Z 50.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-06-05 22:50:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 052049 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE AND STORM DAMAGE RISK REDUCTION SYSTEM FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 89.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 210SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 89.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 89.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N 90.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.9N 90.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.7N 90.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N 90.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.4N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.8N 92.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 39.5N 91.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 50.0N 85.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 89.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-06-05 16:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 051449 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 Although the center of circulation is still over land, the system is gradually becoming better organized on satellite images. A large convective band has become better defined over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. However, central convective features are still lacking. The current intensity estimate is 30 kt based on surface synoptic observations. Re-intensification should begin later today, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Cristobal this evening as the center moves back over water. Additional intensification is anticipated through early Sunday, however this should be limited due to dry mid-level air and some shear. The official intensity forecast is about the same as in previous advisories and is near or above the latest intensity model consensus. The cyclone is moving a little faster toward the north, or about 360/10 kt. For the next couple of days Cristobal should move mainly northward through a weakness between subtropical anticyclones. A gradual bend toward the north-northwest is likely after the center reaches the northern Gulf coast due to some building of a ridge to the northeast. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. Regardless of its exact track and forward speed, Cristobal is expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches the northern Gulf coast. The strongest winds, highest storm surge, and heaviest rains could be well removed to the east of the center of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the Florida Big Bend, in portions of southeastern Louisiana, and along the Mississippi coast within the next 48 hours, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for these areas. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm force winds beginning Sunday morning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 4. Heavy rainfall will spread onto portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding and rapid rises on smaller streams and rivers possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 20.0N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/1200Z 23.8N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 27.3N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 29.1N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON COAST 72H 08/1200Z 31.2N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1200Z 36.7N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1200Z 43.0N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-06-05 16:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 051446 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA AND FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE WATCH AREA IN MEXICO COULD OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 89.9W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 89.9W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 90.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 90.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.3N 90.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.1N 90.9W...ON COAST MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.2N 91.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 36.7N 92.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 43.0N 89.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 89.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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