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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-06-27 04:39:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270239 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0300 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 139.9W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 139.9W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.8N 140.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.9N 141.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.7N 143.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.4N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.7N 147.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 139.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1...WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-06-26 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 262032 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 Visible satellite imagery shows that the center of Boris is a little farther to the north than indicated in the previous advisory. The cyclone has a good low-level circulation, but the associated convection is currently disorganized due to a combination of southerly vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air entrainment. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt as a blend of various satellite intensity estimates. A combination of shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to cause slow weakening, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 60 h. The new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast and lies near the intensity consensus. The initial motion is a little uncertain, with the best estimate 315/6. Boris should turn west-northwestward during the next 12 h or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. Subsequently, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn westward and west-southwestward with some increase in forward speed in the low-level trade wind flow. The new official track forecast follows the general direction of the previous one, but with some adjustments from the previous forecast due to the more northward initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 12.5N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 12.9N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 12.7N 144.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z 12.3N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-06-26 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 262031 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 2100 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 139.1W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 139.1W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 138.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.9N 142.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.7N 144.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.3N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 139.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-06-26 16:42:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261442 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 Boris is showing signs of being affected by vertical wind shear, with the strongest convection now being displaced a little to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt as a blend of subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB and the CIMSS satellite consensus. A combination of shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow weakening trend, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 72 h. The new intensity forecast lies near the intensity consensus. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/7. Boris should move west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn westward, then west-southwestward with some increase in forward speed in the low-level trade wind flow. The new official track forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 12.0N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 12.2N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 12.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 12.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 12.4N 144.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z 12.1N 146.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-06-26 16:42:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 261441 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 1500 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 139.0W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 139.0W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 138.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.2N 139.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.5N 141.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.5N 142.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.4N 144.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.1N 146.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 139.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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