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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-06-26 10:47:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260847 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Deep convection associated with Boris has been pulsing the past several hours, but overall there has been a general decrease in coverage and depth of the associated thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on a 0525Z ASCAT-A pass. The combination of the entrainment of dry mid-level air and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow weakening trend over the next 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate shortly after 72 h. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/07 kt. The forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track. Boris is expected to move west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, Boris is forecast to turn westward, then west-southwestward later in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens even further and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official track forecast, and lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 11.6N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 12.3N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 11.7N 147.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-06-26 10:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 138.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 138.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 138.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.3N 143.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 11.7N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 138.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-06-26 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Deep convection associated with Boris has decreased in coverage since the previous advisory, however a new band of convection has recently developed over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and a Dvorak current intensity (CI) number of T2.5 or 35 kt from SAB. Boris remains within an area of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures, however dry mid-level air just to the north and northwest of the storm continues to be entrained into the circulation. As a result, little change in strength is anticipated over the next 12 h or so, and after that time, Boris will be moving into the drier and more stable air mass which should cause gradual weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate between 72 and 96 h. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290 at 8 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Boris should move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, the cyclone should turn westward, then west- southwestward later in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official forecast, and along the southern side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 11.4N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 11.8N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 12.1N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 12.3N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 12.3N 142.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 12.1N 144.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z 11.8N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-06-26 04:33:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0300 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 137.9W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 137.9W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 137.6W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 11.8N 138.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.1N 140.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.3N 141.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.3N 142.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.1N 144.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 11.8N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 137.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-06-25 22:52:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252052 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Convection has increased further in association with the tropical cyclone, with the center now under a poorly-organized band or dense overcast. A just-received ASCAT-A overpass indicates that 35-kt winds are occurring over an area about 40 n mi from the center in the southeastern semicircle and based on this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Boris. While conditions appear to be favorable for some additional strengthening for the next 12 h or so, none of the intensity guidance forecasts significant intensification during that time. Thus, the intensity forecast holds the intensity at 35 kt through 12 h. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause Boris to weaken, leading to the system degenerating to a remnant low by 60 h and dissipating completely after 72 h. The new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward, but it still is a little above the intensity consensus. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/8. This motion should continue for the next 24 h or so as Boris moves along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous forecast, and it again lies the near consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 11.2N 137.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 11.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 12.3N 141.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 12.2N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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