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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-06-08 16:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081442 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 Cristobal continues to move further inland. Surface observations along with radar and satellite images indicate that the center is located over northeastern Louisiana. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 995 mb, and the initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, based on several observations of 25-30 kt along and offshore of the Mississippi and Alabama coasts. The depression is still producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms generally to the north and east of the center. The depression is moving faster to the northwest than before, and the latest initial motion estimate is 325/13 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn to the north by tonight and then accelerate north-northeastward late Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a trough to its west. This track should take Cristobal, and its extratropical remnants, across the Midwest and over central and eastern Canada during the next few days. Some weakening is expected during the next day or so as Cristobal continues to track inland. However, slight re-intensification as an extratropical cyclone is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday as Cristobal becomes involved with a mid-latitude system over the Upper Mississippi Valley. The combination of Cristobal and the mid-latitude cyclone will likely cause gusty winds over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions around the middle of the week. This is the last NHC advisory on Cristobal. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley tonight through Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed isolated significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 32.5N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0000Z 34.3N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 38.0N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0000Z 42.4N 90.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1200Z 47.4N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0000Z 51.1N 84.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z 52.2N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 51.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-06-08 16:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 081441 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 91.8W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 250SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 91.8W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 91.6W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.3N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.0N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.4N 90.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 47.4N 87.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 51.1N 84.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.2N 82.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 51.5N 77.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 91.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-06-08 10:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080836 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 Radar and surface observations indicate that Cristobal has continued to weaken as it moves farther inland. The initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt, with these winds occuring over portions of the coastline and coastal waters from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. The surface observations also indicate that the central pressure is near 994 mb. While the cyclone is weakening, satellite and radar data show a large area of convective bands continuing in the northeastern quadrant. The initial motion is now 330/9. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Cristobal should continue north-northwestward today as a high pressure ridge over the Great Lakes slides eastward. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by tonight around the east side of the ridge, and then it should turn northeastward on Tuesday ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States. A faster northeastward motion should bring the center of the cyclone across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and into Canada on Wednesday. After that time, the system is expected to slow down after it completes its extratropical transition. There is little change to the previous forecast track except at 96 h, where the new forecast is a bit south of the previous forecast. The cyclone should continue to gradually weaken for the next 36-48 h as it moves farther inland. After that time, some re-intensification is expected as Cristobal becomes involved with mid-latitude cyclogenesis over the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the intensity forecast will call for the system to be a 35-kt extratropical low by 60 h. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate inside the envelope of another extratropical low by 120 h. It should be noted that Cristobal and the mid-latitude cyclone will combine to possibly cause gusty winds over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Although Cristobal has weakened, life-threatening storm surge is expected to continue over a portion of the northern Gulf coast today. Heavy rains associated with the system will also spread over portions of the central United States over the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Although the center of Cristobal has moved inland, there remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley Monday night through Tuesday night. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal through Monday. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. 3. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are expected this morning in the coastal areas from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. In addition, the combination of Cristobal and a mid-latitude cyclone may cause gust winds by midweek over portions of the Midwest and Great lakes regions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 31.0N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1800Z 32.7N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0600Z 35.8N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 39.9N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0600Z 44.7N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1800Z 49.0N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z 51.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 51.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 27
2020-06-08 10:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080835 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 91.2W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 91.2W AT 08/0900Z...INLAND AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 90.6W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.7N 91.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 35.8N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.9N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.7N 88.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 85.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 51.0N 83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 51.5N 78.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 91.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-06-08 04:50:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080250 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 Earlier satellite, radar, and surface observations showed that the center of Cristobal made landfall in southeastern Louisiana around 2200 UTC. Since that time, the storm has turned north- northwestward with the center passing very near New Orleans. Recent Doppler radar data and surface observations suggest that the maximum winds have begun to decrease, and the advisory intensity is set to 40 kt. These winds are primarily occurring over the northern Gulf of Mexico waters. The initial motion estimate is 345/9 kt. Cristobal should continue north-northwestward overnight as a high pressure ridge over the Great Lakes slides eastward. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by Monday night, and then northeastward on Tuesday ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States. A faster northeastward motion should bring the center of the cyclone across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and into Canada on Wednesday. After that time, the system is expected to slow down after it completes its extratropical transition. The early portion of the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly eastward based on the more northward and eastward initial position, however the remainder of the track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and the various consensus aids. Gradual weakening should occur overnight as the circulation continues to move over land, and Cristobal is forecast to become a tropical depression Monday morning. Additional gradual weakening is anticipated while the cyclone moves over the central U.S. through Tuesday, but some slight re-strengthening is possible due to strong baroclinic forcing during the extratropical transition around midweek. The NHC intensity forecast is primarily a blend of the global models. As the system completes its extratropical transition, strong gusty winds are possible mid week behind an associated front over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Although Cristobal has begun weakening, tropical-storm-force winds and life-threatening storm surge is expected to continue over a portion of the northern Gulf coast overnight. Heavy rains associated with the system will also spread over portions of the central United States over the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue along portions of the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans through the overnight hours, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. 3. Heavy rainfall across north Florida should diminish overnight. Heavy rain will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal through Monday. This heavy rain will move up the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday, then across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 30.3N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 34.6N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 38.1N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0000Z 42.9N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 50.8N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z 52.8N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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