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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-06-07 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070839 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 90.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 90.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 90.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.7N 90.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.8N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.3N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.6N 92.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.9N 91.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.0N 89.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 52.0N 84.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 90.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-06-07 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 059 WTNT43 KNHC 070241 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Cristobal has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm continues to exhibit more of a subtropical appearance in satellite images with a broad wind field and a limited amount of deep convection near the center. The most intense convection has been in a squall line that is well east of the center near or over portions of the Florida peninsula. Data from both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters support holding the initial wind speed at 45 kt for this advisory. The center of Cristobal recently passed very near NOAA buoy 42001 in the central Gulf of Mexico, which was helpful in assessing the storm's minimum pressure. Cristobal is moving northward at about 10 kt between a deep-layer ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should continue for about another day, taking the center of the storm across the Louisiana coast by Sunday night. After the storm makes landfall, a slight turn to the northwest is expected on Monday in response to a mid-level ridge shifting eastward across the southeast U.S. The track models are in very good agreement and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. Cristobal has about another 18-24 hours over water in which it could strengthen. However, given its broad structure, lack of deep convection near the center, and dry air that is wrapping into the west and south sides of the circulation, only a little strengthening is predicted. After the storm makes landfall, steady weakening is forecast and the cyclone should weaken to a tropical depression by late Monday. Cristobal is a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin overnight along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue from central to north Florida overnight, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana on Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains into Tuesday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller rivers, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf coast through the Mississippi River Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 26.2N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 29.5N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1200Z 31.8N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1200Z 38.3N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0000Z 43.0N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 50.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 22
2020-06-07 04:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070241 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 90.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 180SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 90.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 90.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.5N 90.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.8N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.3N 92.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.0N 91.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 50.5N 86.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 90.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-06-06 22:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062046 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Cristobal continues to lack the appearance and structure of a typical tropical cyclone. In fact, the large radius of maximum wind and convective bands well removed from the center are more characteristic of a subtropical cyclone. Based on earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations, the maximum winds are about 45 kt. The central pressure has held steady during the last couple of fixes of the aircraft mission, suggesting no significant strengthening since this morning. Since the system is not well organized and is likely to continue to ingest some more dry air, only a little more strengthening is expected until landfall. The official intensity forecast is unchanged and remains close to the model consensus. The cyclone remains on track and is moving northward, or 360/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. The system should continue northward between two mid-level anticyclones until it nears the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, a slight building of a ridge to the northeast should induce a turn toward the north-northwest. In 3-4 days, the post-tropical cyclone should accelerate north-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough. Thereafter, the global models suggest that the system should merge with an extratropical cyclone near the Great Lakes. The official track forecast is in good agreement with the dynamical model consensus and is also close to the latest GFS solution. Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it makes landfall. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late tonight along the northern Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across west and north Florida today, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today into Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller streams, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.2N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 26.7N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 28.5N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1800Z 33.0N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0600Z 36.0N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1800Z 40.5N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 10/1800Z 49.0N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-06-06 22:45:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020 015 WTNT23 KNHC 062045 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 90.2W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 180SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..315NE 315SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 90.2W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 90.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.7N 90.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N 90.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.0N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.5N 91.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 88.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 90.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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