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Tropical Depression Dolly Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-06-24 10:30:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240830 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 0900 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 59.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 100SE 110SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 59.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 59.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 43.1N 57.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 45.1N 53.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.7N 59.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-06-24 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240232 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 Dolly's deep convection is diminishing as the cyclone begins to move over colder waters to the north of the Gulf Stream. Given the decreased convection, it is assumed that the circulation is gradually spinning down and the current intensity is therefore estimated to be near 35 kt. This is also consistent with data from a recent scatterometer overpass. Within 24 hours, the system will be moving over SSTs of around 15 deg C, and the cyclone should have degenerated into remnant low devoid of significant convection. The global models forecast the system to open up into a trough in 36 hours or so and the official forest calls for dissipation by 48 hours, if not sooner. The cyclone continues to move east-northeastward, or around 060/9 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning, Dolly is expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed as it moves with the southwesterly mid-level flow to the southeast of the main branch of mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast lies close to the previous one and is on top of the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA, track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 40.5N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 41.8N 58.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 43.9N 55.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1200Z 45.8N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-06-24 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 502 WTNT24 KNHC 240231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 0300 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 60.3W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 110SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 60.3W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 60.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 41.8N 58.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 43.9N 55.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 45.8N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.5N 60.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-06-23 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 232033 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 Dolly's structure has continued to improve somewhat during the day with convective banding now extending around the eastern and northern side of the circulation. While water vapor imagery indicates that an upper-level low is still in the vicinity of Dolly, that feature is displaced from the cyclone a bit, with some anticyclonic outflow noted in the cirrus canopy. This structure further supports the analysis of Dolly's transition to a tropical storm. For intensity, there is a wide range among satellite estimates, with TAFB and SAB ranging from 25-35 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates between 45-50 kt. The initial intensity will remain 40 kt on this advisory, matching what was shown by the earlier scatterometer data. Dolly continues to move east-northeastward with an initial motion of 060/10 kt. Strengthening mid-latitude southwesterly flow is expected to cause Dolly to turn northeastward and begin accelerating tonight into Wednesday, and the track guidance is in good agreement on the future path and speed of the storm. Dolly's future track will take it over much colder waters and into a higher-shear environment over the next day or so, which should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. Dissipation is still shown at 48 hours, but global models fields indicate that the circulation could open up before then as the system nears the southeastern tip of Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 40.1N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 41.2N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 43.1N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-06-23 22:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 232032 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 2100 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 61.1W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 100SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 61.1W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 41.2N 59.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 43.1N 56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.1N 61.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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