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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-06-05 10:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050836 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 Cristobal's structure has continued to degrade since the last advisory. Radar imagery from Sabancuy, Mexico shows little banding near the center of the cyclone, though substantial convection is still present in the northeast quadrant, over the Yucatan peninsula. Earlier ASCAT data showed winds of 25-30 kt over the southern Gulf of Mexico, and slightly stronger east-southeasterly winds over the western Caribbean Sea. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, but it should be noted that the highest wind speeds over land associated with the circulation of Cristobal are likely lower. Cristobal is forecast to remain over land for another 12 to 18 hours, and little change in strength is anticipated during that time. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, gradual strengthening still seems likely until Cristobal reaches the northern U.S. Gulf Coast, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory. The depression has completed a slow counter-clockwise loop and now appears to be heading north-northeastward near 6 kt. The initial position and motion are somewhat uncertain since the declining structure of the cyclone makes it difficult to pinpoint a center position at night. An upper-level trough to the west and a mid-level ridge to the east of Cristobal are contributing to the deep southerly flow that should steer the cyclone generally northward for the next few days. All of the global models forecast this to occur, though the exact forward speed at which Cristobal will move is more uncertain. Overall, the 6Z guidance shows the cyclone moving northward at a slightly faster pace and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. It now slightly lags the consensus but is still faster than the ECMWF and the ECMWF ensemble mean. Regardless of its exact track and forward speed, Cristobal is expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches the northern Gulf coast. The strongest winds, highest storm surge, and heaviest rains could be well removed from the center of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico later today and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal's center. Storm surge and tropical storm watches will likely be issued for a portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast later today. 3. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 18.8N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 07/0600Z 25.7N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/1800Z 27.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 08/0600Z 29.6N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0600Z 40.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-06-05 10:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050835 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A STORM SURGE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 90.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 90.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 90.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...230NE 210SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.7N 90.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.6N 90.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 29.6N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 40.0N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 90.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 14

2020-06-05 04:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050236 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 Cristobal is not very well organized at the moment as the center of the circulation remains inland over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. Satellite images and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms lack banding features and the center is becoming less distinct. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but these winds are likely occurring over water well to the north and east of the center. The depression is moving slowly to the east as it nears the completion of a cyclonic loop around the Central American gyre that it has been embedded within. The models show the depression turning northward soon on the west side of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. This should take Cristobal back over the southern Gulf of Mexico waters by Friday night, and across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. A fairly progressive ridge moving across the central U.S. could cause Cristobal to turn to the left slightly as it moves across the Gulf coast late this weekend and early next week. There remains a fair amount of spread in the model solutions, with the GFS being the fastest and farthest east and the ECMWF much slower and to the west. The NHC track forecast is between those scenarios and lies near the various consensus aids, which typically have the lowest errors. Cristobal is forecast to remain inland for another 12 to 24 hours, so little change in strength is anticipated during that time. After the system moves back over water, gradual strengthening seems likely until Cristobal reaches the northern Gulf coast. The intensification rate should be slow since Cristobal is a large system and will be moving into an environment of moderate wind shear and some dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update from earlier and lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. Cristobal is expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Given the expected environmental conditions, the strongest winds, highest storm surge, and heaviest rains could be well removed from the center of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone. For more information on the potential impacts, see the Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal's center. Storm surge and tropical storm watches will likely be issued for a portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Friday. 3. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.8N 90.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 05/1200Z 19.1N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0000Z 20.9N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 06/1200Z 22.5N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 07/0000Z 24.3N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/1200Z 26.3N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 08/0000Z 28.3N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 09/0000Z 32.6N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 37.3N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-06-05 04:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050234 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A STORM SURGE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 90.4W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 90.4W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 90.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.9N 90.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 90.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.3N 90.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.3N 90.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.3N 90.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 32.6N 92.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 37.3N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 90.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 13

2020-06-04 22:41:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042041 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 The cyclone's cloud pattern is quite disorganized, with little deep convection near the center. The current intensity estimate is 30 kt, although this may be generous. Since the center should remain over land into Friday morning, some additional weakening could occur during the next 12-24 hours. A re-intensification trend is expected to commence in 36 hours, assuming that the center moves back into the Gulf of Mexico by then. As noted earlier, the atmospheric environment over the Gulf is not particularly conducive for strengthening, with moderate southwesterly shear and some mid-level dry air. There are a number of arc clouds noted in satellite images over the Gulf at this time, which is indicative of drier air at mid-levels. As in the earlier advisories, the NHC intensity forecast is higher than the model consensus. Due to the limitations in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, there is some uncertainty in the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the northern Gulf coast. The system is turning to the left as it executes a partial cyclonic loop within a broad gyre. Beginning tomorrow night, Cristobal should head northward over the Gulf into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. There has not been much change in the official track forecast, which follows the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus. The ECMWF model does show a little more shift to the left in 3-4 days which is also reflected in the NHC track. This should not be considered as a significant change, however, especially for a broad cyclone such as this one. The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand as the cyclone moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and this is reflected in the official wind radii forecast. This suggests that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf coast, the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the center. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued tonight or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.5N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.4N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 21.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/0600Z 25.6N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/1800Z 27.5N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/1800Z 31.0N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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