Home › forecast
 

Keywords :   


Tag: forecast

Tropical Depression Ida Forecast Advisory Number 19

2021-08-30 22:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 302036 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 90.3W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 90.3W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 90.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.6N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.8N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.3N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.0N 80.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.5N 74.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 41.0N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 90.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IDA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

 

Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Discussion Number 11

2021-08-30 22:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 988 WTNT45 KNHC 302035 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 The low-level center of Kate is exposed in visible satellite imagery this afternoon. Its deep convection collapsed late this morning, and the sheared tropical cyclone is now only producing a small area of convection over 60 n mi east of its center. A partial 1321 UTC ASCAT-B pass still showed numerous 30-kt wind vectors in the eastern semicircle, even with little to no active convection. The initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. The subtropical jet stream across the central Atlantic will continue to impart strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear on Kate during the next day or so. If the struggling tropical cyclone can survive these hostile conditions, some modest strengthening could occur later this week over warm SSTs of 28 deg C or so. However, the lack of mid-level moisture in the surrounding environment may limit convective development even under these more favorable conditions, and there is no guarantee that Kate will survive that long. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kate may continue to only produce sporadic bursts of convection over the next couple of days, which jeopardizes its chances of surviving through the week. The official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward based on the latest guidance trends and the uncertainties discussed above. Minor fluctuations in intensity could occur over the next 24-36 h as convective pulsing causes the cyclone's intensity to hover around tropical-storm-force strength. Kate is moving a little faster toward the north, or 355/9 kt, within a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A northward motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. The subtropical ridge is expected to become reestablished over the central Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday, which should turn Kate toward the northwest through midweek. Thereafter, Kate is forecast to accelerate northward or north-northeastward ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough that will move across the western Atlantic late this week. Assuming Kate is still around by day 5, the cyclone is forecast to become absorbed by a larger extratropical low near Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 22.7N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 23.7N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 24.7N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 25.8N 51.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 27.0N 52.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 28.4N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 30.1N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 34.5N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Tags: number discussion storm kate

 
 

Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Advisory Number 11

2021-08-30 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 302034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 50.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.7N 50.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.7N 50.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.8N 51.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.0N 52.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.4N 53.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.1N 54.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 34.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Tags: number storm advisory kate

 

Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-08-30 16:55:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 301455 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 Although strong upper-level westerly shear continues to plague the cyclone, its satellite presentation improved early this morning as its center moved closer to the edge of the convective cloud mass to its east. An ASCAT-A pass from 1100 UTC revealed an area of 30 to 40-kt winds in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, with some slightly stronger winds possibly rain contaminated underneath the deep convection. Additionally, UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimates have risen to around 40 kt within the past few hours, and TAFB gave a T2.5/35 kt subjective Dvorak classification at 12 UTC. These data support upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Kate. Its initial intensity is set at 40 kt for this advisory, although that could be a bit generous given recent satellite trends. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is allowing Kate to move just west of due north, or 355/7 kt. This general motion should continue for the next day or so before the subtropical ridge becomes reestablished over the central Atlantic Ocean. Thereafter, the cyclone should move northwestward on Wednesday and Thursday along the southwestern periphery of the ridge. By Friday, an approaching deep-layer trough should cause the cyclone to accelerate northward or north-northeastward through the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance has shifted a little left of the previous NHC track, and so the official forecast has been adjusted in that direction to bring it closer to the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. The near-term intensity forecast is tricky, as the subtropical jet stream will maintain strong west-northwesterly shear over Kate during the next 24 to 36 h. In fact, recent satellite imagery of the cyclone shows the center is already more exposed than earlier this morning as the convection is waning. Kate is likely to continue exhibiting a bursting convective pattern over the next couple of days, which would likely result in some intensity fluctuations that hover around the tropical-storm-force threshold. The official NHC intensity forecast shows Kate as a 35-kt tropical storm during the first 36 h of the forecast. If Kate survives the hostile shear conditions, some modest intensification will be possible while the cyclone remains over 28 deg C waters. However, Kate will encounter a drier mid-level environment as it gains latitude, so significant strengthening does not appear likely at this time. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one beyond 48 h, as it shows only modest strengthening with time. By day 5, the global models suggest that Kate could be becoming absorbed by a larger extratropical low expected to form and deepen near Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 21.5N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 22.3N 50.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 23.3N 50.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 24.3N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 25.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 26.9N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 28.4N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 37.0N 53.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Tags: number discussion storm kate

 

Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Discussion Number 18

2021-08-30 16:54:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 301454 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 The center of Ida has moved farther inland over western Mississippi this morning and NWS Doppler radar velocities and surface observations indicate that the tropical cyclone's winds have continued to decrease. The strongest winds are located in a band well southeast of the center along the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama where recent surface reports indicate 30-35 kt winds are still occurring. Therefore, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. As Ida's circulation moves farther inland, additional weakening is expected and Ida is expected to become a tropical depression this afternoon. Continued weakening should occur while Ida moves over the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, and the system is forecast to become extratropical over the eastern United States by late Wednesday. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a frontal zone over the western Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. Ida is moving moving just east of due north or 010/8 kt. A north-northeastward turn should occur later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion tonight and Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the cyclone from the west. The dynamical model guidance remains tightly clustered with very little cross-track spread, although there remains some speed or along-track spread in the guidance. The NHC forecast is near the HCCA and TCVA consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue into this afternoon along portions of the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. 2. Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, will continue over portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama this afternoon. 3. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Alabama, resulting in considerable flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Rivers in the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain elevated into next week. As Ida moves inland, additional considerable flooding impacts are likely across portions of the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, and particularly in the Central and Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. 4. In areas that experienced damage and power loss, individuals should use extreme caution during the recovery phase. Post-storm fatalities and injuries often result from heart attacks, heat exhaustion, accidents related to clean up and recovery, and carbon monoxide poisoning from improper generator use. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 31.9N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/1200Z 34.5N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/0000Z 35.8N 85.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1200Z 39.5N 75.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1200Z 40.5N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] next »