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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-31 10:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 310844 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 Kate remains a strongly sheared tropical storm with the associated deep convection occurring in intermittent bursts in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, owing to 850-200-mb west-northwesterly vertical wind shear of at least 30 kt. The most recent Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimates remain at 35 kt, and that is the initial intensity set for this advisory. This intensity is consistent with an earlier SSMI-S passive microwave satellite overpass that showed wind speeds of 30-35 kt on the west side of Kate where no convection/rain was present. The initial motion estimate is 360/04 kt. Kate's forward motion has slowed to as low 2 kt during the psst 6 hours, likely due to the hindering effects of the west-northwesterly shear direction and weak steering currents since Kate has recently moved into a weakness in the low- mid-level subtropical ridge. However, the latest NHC track guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will begin moving northward at a slightly faster forward speed as Kate moves through a break in the ridge. In about 24 hours, a mid-level ridge to the northeast and east of Kate is forecast to build westward, forcing the cyclone on a more northwestward trajectory that should continue through Thursday. By Friday, a mid- to upper-level trough moving eastward over the western Atlantic is forecast to gradually lift out Kate toward the north, and accelerate the cyclone toward the northeast on Saturday. The new NHC forecast track is similar to but slightly east or right of the previous advisory track, and lies near the left edge of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track-model envelope. The intensity forecast is not as straightforward as the track forecast. The aforementioned hostile shear conditions are predicted by the regional and global models, especially the ECMWF model, to gradually abate over the next 18-24 hours, with the magnitude of the shear to decrease to less than 10 kt by 24-36 hours when Kate will be moving over 28.5 deg C water temperatures. If Kate can survive the next 18 hours or so, which is possible since the 850-300-mb shear is much less at only 10-15 kt, then some restrengthening could occur, especially in the 24-48-hour period when the cyclone will be located underneath a small upper-level anticyclone. Countering that, however, is the somewhat dry air (near-50-percent humidity) in the mid-levels of the atmosphere that could limit the formation of inner-core convection. Thus for now, the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory, which shows Kate remaining as a low-end tropical storm through the 96-hour period. This scenario is consistent with the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. On day 5, Kate is forecast to dissipate when the cyclone or its remnants are expected to merge with an extratropical low and associated frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 23.0N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 23.9N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 25.2N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 26.6N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 28.3N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 29.9N 54.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 31.5N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 35.1N 53.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-08-31 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 310836 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 50.9W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 50.9W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 50.9W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.9N 50.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.2N 51.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.6N 52.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.3N 53.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.9N 54.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 31.5N 54.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 35.1N 53.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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kate
Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-08-31 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 310233 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 Kate is a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical cyclone. Satellite images show an exposed low-level center with a few patches of deep convection on the system's east side. The latest Dvorak classifications range from 25-35 kt, and the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt for this advisory. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the circulation this evening. Strong west-northwesterly shear of about 30 kt is expected to persist into early Tuesday, and that could cause some weakening in the short term. Although the shear is expected to lessen after that, Kate will be moving into a drier and more stable airmass. None of the intensity models show much strengthening, and the global models suggest that Kate could dissipate sometime within the next couple of days. The official forecast is again nudged downward and generally shows little change in strength during the next 4 days. Kate, or its remnants, are likely to merge with an extratropical low and associated front in 4 to 5 days. The tropical storm has moved little during the past few hours, but a 12-hour motion yields an estimate of 360/5 kt. The storm is moving toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a deep-layer low over the North Atlantic, and that motion should continue into Tuesday. By Wednesday, mid-level ridging building to the northeast of the system should cause it to turn northwestward. However, another trough moving eastward over the western Atlantic is expected to cause Kate to turn northward again toward the end of the week. The NHC track forecast follows the various consensus aids and is similar to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 22.7N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 23.6N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 24.8N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 26.1N 51.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 27.6N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 29.1N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 30.4N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 33.9N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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kate
Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-31 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 310232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 50.9W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.6N 50.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.8N 50.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.1N 51.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.6N 52.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.1N 54.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.4N 54.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 33.9N 54.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Ida Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-08-30 22:38:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 302037 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Ida Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Ida has continued to weaken while moving farther inland over west-central Mississippi this afternoon. Recent observations indicate that the stronger winds seen this morning along the northern Gulf coast have now dropped below tropical storm strength, and Ida has become a tropical depression. Additional weakening should occur while Ida moves over northeastern Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley during the next 12 to 24 hours. Ida is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone over the eastern United States by late Wednesday, and it is likely to be absorbed within a frontal boundary over the western Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. Ida has turned northeastward and is now moving 020/8 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough approaching Ida from the west should cause the cyclone to move faster toward the northeast over the next couple of days. The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a bit better agreement regarding the forward speed of the Ida as it moves across the eastern U.S., and the NHC track forecast is again near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Ida's winds have decreased, the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding will continue to spread inland over portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, the Central and Southern Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ida. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Alabama, resulting in considerable flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Rivers in the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain elevated into next week. As Ida moves inland, additional considerable flooding impacts are likely across portions of the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, and particularly in the Central and Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. 2. In areas that experienced damage and power loss, individuals should use extreme caution during the recovery phase. Post-storm fatalities and injuries often result from heart attacks, heat exhaustion, accidents related to clean up and recovery, and carbon monoxide poisoning from improper generator use. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 32.6N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/0600Z 33.6N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/1800Z 34.8N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/0600Z 36.3N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/1800Z 38.0N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1800Z 39.5N 74.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1800Z 41.0N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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