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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-12 19:26:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121725 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 12 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. A tropical wave located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. As the tropical wave moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next couple of days, slow development is possible, with upper-level winds becoming less conducive for development thereafter. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of Central America over the weekend. Development of this system is becoming increasingly likely, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward well south of the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Thirteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Thirteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-12 13:53:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121153 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Sep 12 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated and better organized this morning around an area of low pressure located about 500 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and a tropical depression appears to be forming. If this trend continues, advisories will be initiated later this morning or afternoon while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. For additional information on this system, please refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. A tropical wave located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while the system moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of Central America over the weekend. Development of this system is possible early next week while it moves westward well south of the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-12 13:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 121148 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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atlantic
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tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-12 07:52:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 120551 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located about 550 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains broad and somewhat elongated. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized, and the system is expected to become a tropical depression on Thursday while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. For additional information on this system, please refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A tropical wave located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while the system moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of Central America over the weekend. Development of this system is possible early next week while it moves westward well south of the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-12 07:45:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 120545 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms that extend from the southeastern Bahamas northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although limited development of this system is anticipated today, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves northwestward at 5 to 10 mph across the Florida Straits and southern Florida, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward over the tropical Atlantic toward the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: weather
atlantic
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tropical
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