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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2017-09-18 16:59:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 181459 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30(43) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 22(62) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 17(36) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 53(68) 11(79) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 12(53) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 9(36) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 4(24) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 2(20) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 33(65) 6(71) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 3(37) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 3(23) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 44(48) 13(61) 1(62) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 10(30) 1(31) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) PONCE PR 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 57(71) 23(94) X(94) X(94) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 41(72) 1(73) 1(74) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 35(50) 1(51) X(51) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 41(47) 43(90) 2(92) X(92) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 54(68) 2(70) X(70) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 43(48) 2(50) X(50) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 58(79) 18(97) X(97) X(97) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 36(77) 1(78) X(78) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 35(54) 1(55) X(55) VIEQUES PR 34 X 4( 4) 42(46) 45(91) 7(98) X(98) X(98) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 53(61) 18(79) X(79) X(79) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 18(54) X(54) X(54) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 4( 5) 49(54) 35(89) 5(94) X(94) X(94) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 41(51) 13(64) X(64) X(64) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 9(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT CROIX 34 2 5( 7) 71(78) 19(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 50 X 1( 1) 31(32) 44(76) 6(82) X(82) X(82) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 11(11) 39(50) 8(58) X(58) X(58) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 21(23) 47(70) 6(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 70(73) 18(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 1 9(10) 26(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BARBUDA 34 4 45(49) 11(60) 2(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) BARBUDA 50 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 13 63(76) 6(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) ANTIGUA 50 1 10(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ANTIGUA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 81 16(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GUADELOUPE 50 5 34(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GUADELOUPE 64 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 34 3 79(82) 12(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) AVES 50 1 25(26) 36(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) AVES 64 X 8( 8) 25(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOMINICA 50 85 11(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) DOMINICA 64 48 35(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MARTINIQUE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARTINIQUE 50 82 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MARTINIQUE 64 36 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT LUCIA 34 65 1(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) SAINT LUCIA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT VINCENT 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARBADOS 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 9

2017-09-18 16:59:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 181459 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria is undergoing rapid intensification. The aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 115 kt in the northeastern eyewall, along with reliable-looking surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer as high as 104 kt. In addition, the estimated central pressure inside the 10 n mi wide eye has fallen to 959 mb. The initial intensity is increased to 100 kt, making Maria a major category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The small eye is also apparent in radar data from Martinique. The initial motion is 285/9, a little to the left of the previous motion. Other than that, there is little change in either the forecast philosophy or the forecast track. A high pressure area to the north of Maria should maintain a general west-northwestward motion for the next three days or so. After that, the high weakens, which should allow the hurricane to turn gradually northwestward and north-northwestward. The new forecast track is changed little from the previous one, and it calls for Maria to move through the Leeward Islands in 12-24 h, approach the Virgin Islands in about 36 h, then cross Puerto Rico between 48-72 h. The new track lies to the left of the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer. This is reflected in the intensity forecast, which now calls for Maria to become a category 4 hurricane in 12 h and reach a possibly conservative peak intensity of 130 kt in about 36 h. From 72-120 h, land interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some weakening. On top of these general trends, there is also the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to maintain category 3 to 4 intensity through the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect for many of these islands. 2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and a hurricane watch is in effect for that island. A hurricane warning will likely be issued later today. 3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.7N 60.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.1N 61.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 62.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 17.6N 65.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 19.5N 68.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 21.5N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 24.0N 72.5W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-18 16:58:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18 the center of Maria was located near 14.7, -60.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 9

2017-09-18 16:58:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 181458 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...MARIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 60.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the U. S. Virgin Islands. The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for the British Virgin Islands, and a Tropical Storm Warning for Anguilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Martinique * St. Lucia * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Anguilla A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane Warnings will likely be issued for Puerto Rico and the nearby islands this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 60.1 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands late today and tonight, over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night, and approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane as it moves through the Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of the Leeward Islands by late today, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder of the hurricane warning area tonight through Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Tuesday through Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area through tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the central and southern Leeward Islands, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Puerto Rico. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the remaining northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla, eastern portions of the Dominican Republic, as well as the Windward Islands and Barbados. Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 9

2017-09-18 16:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 181456 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ANGUILLA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 60.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 60.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 59.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.1N 61.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 62.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.6N 65.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 60.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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