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Hurricane Maria Graphics

2017-09-18 22:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 20:53:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 20:53:25 GMT

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 10

2017-09-18 22:48:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 182048 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and this featured has recently become better defined in visible and infrared satellite imagery. The aircraft data supported an intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that rapid intensification is continuing. Thus, the initial intensity is increased to 115 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt. After an excursion to the left overnight, Maria has resumed a motion of 290-295 degrees at about 8 kt, and the short-term motion may be even farther to the right. A weak subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it generally west-northwestward for the next three days, with the center crossing the Leeward Islands near Dominica during the next few hours. This is expected to be followed by a track across the northeastern Caribbean to near the Virgin Islands, then followed by a passage over or near Puerto Rico around the 48 h point. Once north of Puerto Rico, the hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and north-northwest as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 120 h, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast that lies a little to the south of the various consensus models. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer. The intensity forecast, which is at or above the upper edge of the guidance, now calls for Maria to reach a peak intensity of 135 kt in about 24 h, and it is possible that the hurricane could reach category 5 status. Later in the forecast period, land interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some weakening. On top of these general trends, there is also the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period. It should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria, the hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small area near the eye. The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii will not expand significantly during the next 36 h. However, if an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, the hurricane-force winds could expand to an area larger than forecast. If radar data from the eastern Caribbean is regularly available, Tropical Cyclone Updates may be issued this evening. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect for many of these islands. 2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that island. 3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.1N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO 72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-18 22:48:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR DOMINICA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18 the center of Maria was located near 15.1, -60.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 10

2017-09-18 22:48:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182048 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...MARIA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR DOMINICA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 60.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF DOMINICA ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques. The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has changed the Hurricane Warning for that island to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Watch from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata, and a Tropical Storm Watch west of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Martinique * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Anguilla * St. Lucia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla * Isla Saona to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required later tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located by satellite imagery and data from the French radar on Martinique near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 60.7 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move near Dominica and the adjacent Leeward Islands during the next few hours, over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea the remainder of tonight and Tuesday, and approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Maria is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions should be spreading across Dominica, Guadeloupe, and Martinique during the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occurring over portions of the Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder of the hurricane warning area tonight through Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Tuesday through Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in St. Vincent and the Grenadines through tonight, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches. Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2017-09-18 22:48:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 182048 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 27(50) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 18(67) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 16(42) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 49(76) 6(82) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 8(55) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 6(36) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 3(23) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) 2(19) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 22(67) 3(70) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 21(36) 1(37) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 1(22) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 45(52) 8(60) 1(61) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 6(28) 1(29) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) PONCE PR 34 X 4( 4) 34(38) 50(88) 7(95) X(95) X(95) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 53(58) 15(73) 1(74) X(74) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 17(52) X(52) X(52) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 60(76) 17(93) 1(94) X(94) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 33(71) 1(72) X(72) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 31(51) X(51) X(51) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 3( 4) 47(51) 43(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 10(10) 59(69) 13(82) X(82) X(82) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 44(47) 16(63) X(63) X(63) VIEQUES PR 34 2 6( 8) 72(80) 18(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 50 X 1( 1) 33(34) 45(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 13(13) 43(56) 6(62) X(62) X(62) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 11(13) 70(83) 12(95) 1(96) 1(97) X(97) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 1( 1) 36(37) 29(66) 4(70) X(70) X(70) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 13(13) 26(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) SAINT CROIX 34 2 35(37) 58(95) 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 50 X 3( 3) 66(69) 17(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) SAINT CROIX 64 X 1( 1) 42(43) 20(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 60(63) 19(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) SAINT MAARTEN 50 1 5( 6) 13(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 31 63(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 2 32(34) 7(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 12(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARBUDA 34 30 37(67) 2(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) BARBUDA 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 73 18(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ANTIGUA 50 3 10(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ANTIGUA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 50 43 5(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) GUADELOUPE 64 13 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) AVES 34 25 67(92) 2(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) AVES 50 2 38(40) 5(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) AVES 64 X 13(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOMINICA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOMINICA 64 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MARTINIQUE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARTINIQUE 50 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MARTINIQUE 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 16 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT VINCENT 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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