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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 10

2017-09-18 22:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182047 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THAT ISLAND TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * MARTINIQUE * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ANGUILLA * ST. LUCIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANGUILLA * ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 60.7W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 60.7W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W...OVER PUERTO RICO MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 60.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Maria Graphics

2017-09-18 19:47:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 17:47:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 15:39:42 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-18 19:46:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... ...THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING... As of 2:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18 the center of Maria was located near 14.9, -60.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 9A

2017-09-18 19:46:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 181746 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...MARIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... ...THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 60.4W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...200 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Martinique * St. Lucia * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Anguilla A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane Warnings will likely be issued for Puerto Rico and the nearby islands this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located by the French radar on Martinique near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 60.4 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands late today and tonight, over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night, and approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (200 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane as it moves through the Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of the Leeward Islands by late today, with tropical storm conditions beginning shortly. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder of the hurricane warning area tonight through Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Tuesday through Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area through tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the central and southern Leeward Islands, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Puerto Rico. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the remaining northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla, eastern portions of the Dominican Republic, as well as the Windward Islands and Barbados. Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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