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Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-20 04:49:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 19 the center of Rose was located near 15.3, -31.1 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-20 04:49:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 138 WTNT32 KNHC 200249 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 31.1W ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 31.1 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly slower northwestward motion is forecast over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Monday. By Tuesday, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-20 04:49:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 139 WTNT22 KNHC 200249 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.1W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.1W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 30.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.9N 32.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 34.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 35.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 36.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N 37.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 38.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.1N 40.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 31.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-20 04:48:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 236 WTNT21 KNHC 200248 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 58.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 58.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 58.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 60.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 66.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 67.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.9N 68.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.7N 68.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 58.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-20 01:16:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 192316 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Peter, located a few hundred miles east of the northernmost Leeward Islands, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Rose, located a few hundred miles west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. An area of disorganized cloudiness and a few thunderstorms located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave that is moving off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form later this week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A storm force non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located a couple of hundred miles south of Newfoundland. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics by the middle of this week as it moves slowly eastward and then southeastward over warmer waters across the north-central Atlantic Ocean. Additional information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Rose are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Rose are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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