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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-20 01:13:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 192313 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula within the next couple of days. Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the middle and latter parts of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Peter Graphics
2021-09-19 22:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 20:42:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 21:22:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-19 22:40:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 192039 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 Over the past few hours deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -85 degrees C have developed near and to the east of the center of Peter. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system earlier provided data during several legs of the flight that confirmed an intensity of 40 kt. A blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI- numbers from TAFB are consistent with that data, and therefore the initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory. The vertical wind shear that stripped Peter of its deep convection earlier today is forecast to increase further through tonight and persist for at least a few days. Global model simulated satellite imagery suggests this latest burst of convection will also become removed from the center within several hours, with the cyclone struggling to maintain persistent deep convection throughout much of the 5-day forecast period. Therefore, despite being over very warm waters, Peter is forecast to slowly weaken over the next several days. The intensity model guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast remains near the various intensity consensus solutions. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there are some indications, particularly by the GFS, that Peter could open back into a wave within a few days which adds some additional uncertainty to the intensity forecast. Peter's initial motion remains 290/15 kt. The storm is forecast to continue to move in this west-northwestward direction for the next couple of days as it is steered to the south of a subtropical ridge. This ridge is expected to weaken in a few days which should cause the cyclone to slow its forward motion and turn northwestward. Late in the forecast period a turn to the north and possibly northeast is expected to occur as Peter gets caught in the flow around a large trough to its north. The model guidance has shifted westward beyond day 2, in part due to a faster forward motion. While the timing of the cyclone's turn to the north remains the same, the NHC forecast was shifted to the left beyond 48 h, but still remains to the east of the consensus. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late today into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 18.4N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 19.1N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.9N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.8N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.9N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 22.9N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 24.1N 68.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 26.1N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 27.7N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-19 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 192039 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 57.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 57.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 57.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 59.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.9N 62.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.8N 64.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 66.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.9N 67.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.1N 68.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.1N 68.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.7N 67.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 57.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-19 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 192039 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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