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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-13 07:56:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
801 ABPZ20 KNHC 130556 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Elida, which has become a post-tropical cyclone located several hundred miles southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to show signs of organization. Conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters later this weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-13 07:09:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 130509 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-13 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 130236 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 Conventional satellite imagery and a fortuitous ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass indicate that the center of circulation is a little farther south than previously estimated and remains well to the southeast of the deep convective canopy. The latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis confirms modest east-southeasterly shear impinging on the cloud pattern. A compromise of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the aforementioned scatterometer pass retains the initial intensity at 30 kt. Large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance still show the shear abating soon which should result in gradual strengthening with a peak intensity of 50 kt in 2 days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to encounter moderate to strong southwesterly shear associated with a deep-layer trough stretching over the southwestern Atlantic. This change in the upper wind pattern should induce steady weakening. A number of the global models indicate that the cyclone will become a remnant low by day 4 and open up into a trough by day 5 which is certainly possible. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory but indicates a more expeditious weakening trend beyond the 48 hour period in deference to the global model solution. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/13 kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric easterly flow produced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the depression. The song remains the same...there is virtually no change to the forecast philosophy and only a slight shift to the left of the previous track forecast was made in response to the southward initial position adjustment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 12.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 13.0N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 14.2N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 17.0N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 18.3N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 22.5N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 25.6N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-13 04:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STRUGGLING DEPRESSION HEADING WESTWARD... ...STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 12 the center of Eleven was located near 12.5, -47.1 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 6
2020-08-13 04:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 130235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 ...STRUGGLING DEPRESSION HEADING WESTWARD... ...STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 47.1W ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 47.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later tonight and this motion is forecast to continue during the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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