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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2020-08-13 16:54:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 14:54:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 15:31:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-13 16:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 131453 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 A just-received ASCAT overpass showed an area of 35-40 kt winds about 70 n mi north of the center of Tropical Depression Eleven, and based on this the cyclone is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Josephine with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the convective pattern associated with Josephine has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with a ragged central convective feature and a weak band in the northern semicircle. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/13 kt. Josephine should continue this motion for the next several days as it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The global models forecast the western end of the ridge to weaken even more after 72-96 h, which should cause the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time, to turn northwestward. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track lies a little to the right of the previous track and a little to the left of the consensus models. Some additional strengthening appears likely during the next 24- 36 h as Josephine moves through an environment of light vertical wind shear. After that, the cyclone is expected to encounter moderate to strong southwesterly shear as it approaches an upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic, which should cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward for the first 72 h based on the current intensity. After 72 h, it shows weakening similar to the previous forecast, but not as drastic as the global models that show the storm degenerating to a tropical wave before 120 h. Josephine is the earliest tenth tropical storm of record in the Atlantic, with the next earliest tenth storm being Tropical Storm Jose on August 22, 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 13.7N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 14.5N 51.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 15.8N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.5N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 19.9N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 21.3N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 27.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-08-13 16:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 131453 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-13 16:53:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 13 the center of Josephine was located near 13.7, -49.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 8
2020-08-13 16:53:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 131453 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 49.2W ABOUT 975 MI...1565 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 49.2 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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