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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-13 16:53:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 131453 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 GPM and AMSR microwave passes from a few hours ago indicate that the depression's low-level center is displaced a little to the northeast of a mid-level center due to moderate northeasterly shear. Since Dvorak estimates are T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is still 30 kt. The environment around the depression is not ideal for much strengthening. On one hand, the system is far enough south that cold waters will not be an issue. However, northeasterly shear is expected to increase a little further, and the environment appears to become more subsident within the next 2-3 days. In addition, the global models do not show the system detaching much, if at all, from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and that does not usually bode well for much strengthening. SHIPS is the only model that indicates steady but gradual strengthening for the entire forecast period. Otherwise, the bulk of the other models, including HCCA, global models, and the IVCN intensity consensus respond to the adverse environmental conditions and show the cyclone weakening after 36-48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast still shows the depression becoming a tropical storm in the next 12 hours, but then weakens the system back to a depression in 2-3 days through the end of the 5-day period. It's also entirely possible that the system becomes a remnant low at some point, since it may be difficult for organized deep convection to be maintained. The depression is moving westward, or 280/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging should maintain a general westward motion for much of the forecast period, although the system's forward speed is expected to slow to a crawl from 48 hours and beyond. The new track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous one and generally follows the HCCA and other multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 13.7N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 13.8N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 13.9N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 13.8N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 13.8N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 14.7N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 14.9N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)
2020-08-13 16:52:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD... ...NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN VERY MUCH... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.7, -129.8 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-13 16:52:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 131452 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD... ...NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN VERY MUCH... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 129.8W ABOUT 1450 MI...2330 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 129.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm as soon as today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-08-13 16:52:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 131452 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 4(17) 2(19) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-08-13 16:52:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 131452 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 49.2W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 49.2W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 51.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 53.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.5N 58.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.9N 61.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.3N 63.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 27.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 49.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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