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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-13 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 130235 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 47.1W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 47.1W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 46.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.0N 48.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.2N 51.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 56.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.3N 58.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.5N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 25.6N 67.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 47.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-08-13 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 130235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-13 01:19:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 122319 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elida, located several hundred miles southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to become better defined. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is also showing some signs of organization. Conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Thursday while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters later this weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-13 01:11:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 122311 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2020-08-12 22:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 20:43:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 20:43:46 GMT
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tropical
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eleven
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