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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-29 22:51:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA TO CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 the center of Nora was located near 24.3, -107.5 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 17
2021-08-29 22:51:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 983 WTPZ34 KNHC 292051 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA TO CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 107.5W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch north of Topolobampo to Huatabampito. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Mazatlan to Escuinapa has been discontinued, and the Tropical Storm Watch from Cabo San Lucas to La Paz has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mazatlan to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Topolobampo to Huatabampito Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of Sonora should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 107.5 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue through early this week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple of days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland sooner than forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Jalisco to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-08-29 22:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 292050 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF MAZATLAN TO ESCUINAPA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 107.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 75SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 107.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.1N 108.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.8N 108.8W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N 109.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 27.2N 109.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 28.2N 110.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.9N 111.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 107.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 30/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Storm Julian Graphics
2021-08-29 22:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 20:40:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 20:40:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Julian Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-29 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 292039 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Julian Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021 The convective pattern and structure of Julian has remained consistent throughout today, with the low-level center remaining tucked under the southwestern edge of a deep convective mass and good outflow in the northeastern semicircle. A late morning ASCAT-C overpass sampled peak winds of 45 to 47 kt, and since the cyclone has likely intensified slightly since that time, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Julian is now moving quickly to the northeast, or 050/21 kt in southwesterly flow to the south of a deep-layer area of low pressure located just east of Newfoundland. The storm is forecast to continue to move northeastward at a similar forward speed through Monday, and then begin to turn northward then northwestward Monday night through Tuesday as the cyclone moves around the periphery of the larger low. The model track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one. A cold front associated with the low east of Newfoundland has already begun to interact with the circulation of Julian, as noted by dry air being pulled into the southern portion of the circulation, and linear banding developing to the south of the cyclone. Baroclinic forcing could allow for some slight additional strengthening through tonight. However, Julian should cross the 26 C isotherm this evening, and reach waters of 22 C by 24 h while interacting with the cold front and associated mid- to upper level trough to its north. These factors should cause the cyclone to go through extratropical transition tonight through tomorrow morning, with the transition complete by late tomorrow. The latest SHIPS guidance as well as the FSU phase-space diagrams depict this transition scenario. Once extratropical, the system should dissipate within a couple of days over the north Atlantic. The latest NHC intensity forecast was essentially an update of the previous one, and is close to the HCCA and IVCN solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 36.7N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 38.8N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 42.2N 38.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0600Z 46.3N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1800Z 51.0N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/0600Z 55.0N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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