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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 6

2021-08-29 16:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 291432 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 50.2W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 50.2W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 50.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 50.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.7N 49.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.1N 49.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.6N 49.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.4N 49.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.6N 50.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 33.5N 50.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2021-08-29 16:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 291432 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number speed wind tropical

 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-08-29 13:45:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

089 ABNT20 KNHC 291145 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ida, located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico approaching the coast of Louisiana, on Tropical Depression Ten, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Depression Eleven, located over the central subtropical Atlantic. A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Delmarva Peninsula is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the warm Gulf Stream waters. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some slow development over the next few days as this system drifts southeastward and then eastward, moving away from the east coast of the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa by Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression is likely to form toward the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-08-29 13:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 291138 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Aug 29 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Nora, located near the coast of west-central Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Tags: north weather pacific eastern

 

Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics

2021-08-29 11:00:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 09:00:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 09:35:00 GMT

Tags: graphics tropical depression eleven

 

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