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Tropical Storm Julian Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-29 16:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 291452 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 46.8W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 46.8W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 47.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.9N 43.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 40.0N 39.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 43.6N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 48.0N 36.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 52.2N 38.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 46.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics
2021-08-29 16:34:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 14:34:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 14:34:19 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-29 16:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 775 WTNT45 KNHC 291433 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The center of the depression has become a little more exposed to the northwest of the deep convection during the past few hours as a result of continued 25-30 kt of northwesterly shear. The latest Dvorak estimates are T2.5 from TAFB and T1.0/2.0 from SAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The system is expected to continue moving through a region of strong northwesterly to westerly shear for the next 2 days or so, and little to no strengthening is anticipated during that time. However, if the convection is able to remain fairly close to the center, then the system could eke into tropical storm status at any time. After 48 hours, a significant decrease in shear, along with warm waters of 27-28 degrees Celsius, should allow for a steady strengthening trend. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward on days 3 through 5, although much of the guidance is even higher, suggesting that further adjustments could be required in subsequent advisories. The depression is moving northward (350/10 kt) through a break in the ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending south of Newfoundland over the central Atlantic. This trough, along with a strengthening mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic on days 3-5, are expected to keep the cyclone on a curvy northward track during the entire forecast period. There is high confidence in the track forecast given low spread among the track models, and the NHC official forecast generally lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 18.8N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 20.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 21.4N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 22.7N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 24.1N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 25.6N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 27.4N 49.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 30.6N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 33.5N 50.7W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102021)
2021-08-29 16:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 29 the center of Ten was located near 18.8, -50.2 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 6
2021-08-29 16:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 291432 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 50.2W ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 50.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the north or north-northeast at a slower forward speed is expected through Wednesday, keeping the depression over the central Atlantic during the upcoming week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, but the depression could become a tropical storm by Tuesday or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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