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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-30 01:40:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 292340 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 29 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nora, located near the coast of northwestern Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-30 01:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 292340 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ida, located inland over southeastern Louisiana, on Tropical Depression Ten, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Julian, located over the central subtropical Atlantic. A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Delmarva Peninsula is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to increase over the low on Monday and Tuesday, and any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly southeastward and then eastward, away from the east coast of the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa by Monday night. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of a low pressure area once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter part of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Julian are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Julian are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-29 22:53:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 20:53:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 20:53:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-29 22:52:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 292052 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Visible satellite imagery and surface observations along the west-central coast of Mexico suggest that the center of Nora has re-formed closer to a mass of deep convection that has persisted today over the southern Gulf of California. Various satellite data sets indicate that Nora is weakening. The latest SSMIS microwave data reveal that the structure of Nora has degraded since this morning, especially in the mid-levels where an eyewall structure is no longer evident. Additionally, a 15 UTC ASCAT-A pass shows the winds are substantially weaker than previously estimated. Thus, the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is somewhat uncertain given the earlier center relocation, but it is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt. The global models suggest the tropical cyclone will move generally northwestward over the next couple of days, between an upper-level low offshore the Baja California peninsula and a mid-level ridge to the east of Nora. This motion should keep the center of Nora along the coast, or just inland over mainland west-central or northwestern Mexico. The official NHC track forecast is once again shifted a little to the right based on the latest track guidance, which brings the cyclone further inland by Tuesday. Nora is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days as the system continues to interact with the coastline of Mexico. Despite warm SSTs in the Gulf of California and weak environmental shear, it appears unlikely that Nora will move far enough away from the coast to take advantage of this favorable environment. In fact, it is certainly plausible that the center of Nora could move well inland earlier than forecast and weaken more rapidly. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted about 10 kt weaker at all forecast hours based on today's data supporting a much weaker initial intensity. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength while it moves near the coast of Sinaloa and southern Sonora through early Tuesday, and tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 24.3N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 30/0600Z 25.1N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 30/1800Z 25.8N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 31/0600Z 26.5N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 31/1800Z 27.2N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 01/0600Z 28.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1800Z 28.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-08-29 22:51:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 635 FOPZ14 KNHC 292051 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) HUATABAMPO 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 2 32(34) 7(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 58 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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