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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-29 19:54:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 291754 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 29 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Nora, located near the coast of west-central Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-29 19:53:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 the center of Nora was located near 24.1, -107.3 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 16A
2021-08-29 19:53:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 586 WTPZ34 KNHC 291753 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 107.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning south of Escuinapa and has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Escuinapa to Altata. The Hurricane Watch from north of Altata to Topolobampo has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Escuinapa to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 107.3 West. Nora is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to continue tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple of days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland sooner than forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-29 19:53:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 17:53:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 15:40:32 GMT
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-29 19:37:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 291737 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ida, which has made landfall on the coast of southeastern Louisiana, on Tropical Depression Ten, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Julian, located over the central subtropical Atlantic. A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Delmarva Peninsula is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to increase over the low on Monday and Tuesday, and any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly southeastward and then eastward, away from the east coast of the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa by Monday night. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of a low pressure area once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter part of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Julian are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Julian are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Berg
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