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Tropical Storm Julian Graphics
2021-08-29 16:54:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 14:54:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 14:54:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Julian Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-29 16:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 291453 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Julian Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The system has become better organized this morning, with the low-level center located on the southwestern edge of a persistent mass of deep convection. A 1246 UTC ASCAT-B pass revealed an area of winds over 40 kt southeast of the center, so the system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Julian with maximum winds of 45 kt. Julian is accelerating toward the northeast (045/15 kt) in the flow to the south of a deep-layer area of low pressure located just east of Newfoundland. The storm is expected to move around the southeastern and eastern periphery of this large low during the next few days, accelerating further and turning toward the north by 48 hours. The track models are all in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. This new forecast is also relatively unchanged from the previous advisory. Winds in the storm have increased faster than expected, even in the face of 20 kt of west-southwesterly shear. This shear is forecast to increase substantially in the coming days, with SHIPS diagnostics indicating it may reach magnitudes of 40-50 kt. However, the storm will still be moving over marginally warm waters around 26 degrees Celsius, and its fast motion and some baroclinic forcing could allow for additional strengthening during the next 12-24 hours. Nearly all the intensity models support some strengthening, and the NHC official forecast peaks the winds at 55 kt in 24 hours, roughly between the IVCN and HCCA solutions. Phase-space diagrams suggest that Julian will probably already be going through extratropical transition at that time, and it should be fully extratropical by 36 hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated after 24 hours, and the extratropical low is likely to dissipate over the north Atlantic by day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 35.1N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 36.9N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 40.0N 39.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 43.6N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1200Z 48.0N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/0000Z 52.2N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Julian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-08-29 16:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 291453 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Julian (AT1/AL112021)
2021-08-29 16:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM JULIAN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 29 the center of Julian was located near 35.1, -46.8 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Julian Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-29 16:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 291452 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julian Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM JULIAN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.1N 46.8W ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julian was located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 46.8 West. Julian is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster motion toward the northeast and then north over the north Atlantic is expected through Tuesday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated through tonight. Weakening should begin on Monday, with Julian likely becoming post-tropical by Monday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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