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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-30 17:03:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 15:03:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 15:03:31 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 33
2019-09-30 17:02:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 301502 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 Lorenzo continues to maintain its strength. A cloud filled eye is evident in infrared satellite imagery, while convection is attempting to wrap around a break in the southern portion of the hurricane. This is indicating that for the time being, the cyclone is fighting off some of the dry air entraining into it from the southwest. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 90 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. Lorenzo continues north-northeastward, now at 13 kt, around the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Over the next couple of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough amplifying across the central Atlantic. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near or just west of the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday. The forecast track confidence is high through 72 hours, but decreases significantly thereafter, as forecast models continue to differ on their handling of the steering flow. By that time, the steering flow may break down as the trough to the west of Lorenzo de-amplifies, while an extratropical low quickly approaches from the west. Some of the forecast models turn Lorenzo north ahead of the approaching low as they begin to interact, other solutions turn Lorenzo or its remnants to the east in the westerlies, with limited interaction with this low. The official forecast track is very close to the previous one and to the consensus aids, which lies in between these two scenarios. Lorenzo should gradually weaken over the next couple of days while drier air continues to get pulled into the circulation and the system moves over progressively cooler waters. After 48 hours, the interaction with the approaching trough, an associated cold front, and very strong southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo into an extratropical low. This transition is expected to be complete by 72 hours. The low is then expected to either dissipate or become absorbed by another extratropical low by day 5. The official forecast intensity is very similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the Azores. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 30.0N 42.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 31.7N 41.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 34.5N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 38.1N 34.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 43.3N 28.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 53.5N 17.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1200Z 58.2N 11.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-30 16:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO MAINTAINS IT STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE AZORES... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 30.0, -42.6 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2019-09-30 16:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 301456 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 34(34) 60(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 61(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 33
2019-09-30 16:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 301456 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...LORENZO MAINTAINS IT STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 42.6W ABOUT 1050 MI...1685 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued a Hurricane Warning for the central and western Azores, including the islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 42.6 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later today, with an increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Wednesday. Lorenzo is expected to transition to an extratropical low by Thursday. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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