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Hurricane Bud Forecast Advisory Number 15

2018-06-13 10:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130832 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0900 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO LA PAZ... MEXICO... INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.6N 109.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.6N 109.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.6N 109.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.5N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 34.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Bud Graphics

2018-06-13 07:50:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 05:50:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 03:25:42 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)

2018-06-13 07:50:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...BUD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 12:00 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 the center of Bud was located near 18.9, -108.7 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 14A

2018-06-13 07:50:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130550 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1200 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ...BUD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 108.7W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 108.7 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected into Thursday. Bud is forecast to accelerate northward late Thursday into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud will cross southern Baja California Sur Thursday night and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bud is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur late Thursday or Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning on Thursday. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Bud Graphics

2018-06-13 04:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 02:33:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 02:33:51 GMT

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