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Hurricane Bud Graphics

2018-06-11 19:39:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Jun 2018 17:39:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Jun 2018 15:35:11 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)

2018-06-11 19:39:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CORE OF HURRICANE BUD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...RAINBANDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST... As of 12:00 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 the center of Bud was located near 16.9, -107.2 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 8A

2018-06-11 19:39:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 111739 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 ...CORE OF HURRICANE BUD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...RAINBANDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 107.2W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 107.2 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Tuesday, and this general motion should continue into mid-week. On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds are expected to move away from the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible later today, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across much of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches into Tuesday afternoon. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Bud Graphics

2018-06-11 16:41:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Jun 2018 14:41:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Jun 2018 14:41:23 GMT

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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 8

2018-06-11 16:40:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 111439 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 There have been some fluctuations in the amount of deep convection surrounding the ragged eye during the past several hours, but the overall trend has been upward. Although the subjective T-numbers have not changed significantly, NHC and UW/CIMMS objective numbers have increased, and support an initial intensity of 105 kt for this advisory. Bud has the opportunity to gain some additional strength during the next 12 to 24 hours before the environmental conditions become less conducive. A faster weakening is expected to occur when Bud moves over the cooler waters near the Baja California peninsula. By then, Bud is expected to be below hurricane strength. The official intensity forecast closely follows the Corrected Consensus HCCA model, which has been performing well. Satellite fixes indicate that Bud is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at about 6 kt. The hurricane continues to be steered by the weak flow around a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico and the southwestern United States. Once Bud reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36 hours, it should gradually turn north-northwestward and then northward toward the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one and is in between HCCA and the multi-model ensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.7N 106.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.2N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 18.3N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 19.0N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 22.5N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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