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Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-06-13 16:57:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 131456 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 1500 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 4( 5) 22(27) 13(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 4( 4) 19(23) 18(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 18(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 1(22) X(22) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 25 8(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Advisory Number 16
2018-06-13 16:56:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 131456 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 1500 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ... INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO LA PAZ... MEXICO... INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.8W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.8W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.1N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 21.1N 109.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.4N 109.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.2N 109.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.3N 109.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 35.5N 106.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-13 13:44:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 11:44:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 09:26:07 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-13 13:43:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 6:00 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 the center of Bud was located near 19.1, -108.8 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 15A
2018-06-13 13:43:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131142 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 600 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ...BUD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 108.8W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 108.8 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (3 km/h). Although Bud has been nearly stationary for the past few hours, a general motion toward the northwestward with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to resume later today and continue into Thursday. Bud is forecast to accelerate northward late Thursday into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud will cross southern Baja California Sur early Friday and move over the Gulf of California later on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Although additional weakening is expected, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur late Thursday or Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning on Thursday. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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