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Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)

2018-06-11 16:39:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HURRICANE BUD GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...RAINBANDS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAIN NEAR THE COAST... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 the center of Bud was located near 16.7, -106.8 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 8

2018-06-11 16:39:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 111439 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 ...HURRICANE BUD GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...RAINBANDS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAIN NEAR THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 106.8W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 106.8 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today and tonight with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Tuesday, and this general motion should continue into mid-week. On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds are expected to remain well offshore of the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across much of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches into Tuesday afternoon. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2018-06-11 16:39:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 111439 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 1500 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 10(26) 2(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 9(24) 3(27) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 7(14) 10(24) 1(25) X(25) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 105W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) MANZANILLO 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 110W 34 2 4( 6) 11(17) 20(37) 20(57) 3(60) X(60) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 12(16) 2(18) X(18) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 7(13) 10(23) 10(33) 1(34) X(34) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane Bud Forecast Advisory Number 8

2018-06-11 16:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 111438 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 1500 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 106.8W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 106.8W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.2N 107.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.3N 108.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 22.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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