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Hurricane Bud Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-06-12 22:50:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 122050 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... MEXICO... SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BUD. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.1N 108.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.8N 109.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.0N 110.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.2N 110.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 29.3N 110.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 35.0N 110.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Bud Graphics
2018-06-12 17:02:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Jun 2018 15:02:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Jun 2018 15:25:42 GMT
Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-06-12 16:58:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 121458 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Satellite imagery indicate that Bud peaked in intensity around 0600 UTC, and cloud tops surrounding the well-defined, 20-nmi-diameter eye have been steadily warming since then. The intensity estimate of 110 kt is based on a blend of TAFB T- and CI-numbers, and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 110 kt. Bud has continued to make a trochoidal motion in the general direction of 320/05 kt during the past 6 hours. Overall, no significant changes were required to the previous advisory track due to the latest NHC model guidance remaining very tightly packed. Bud is forecast to move slowly in a north-northwestward direction around a large mid-level ridge extending westward across central Mexico for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the north by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Bud is expected to move across Baja California Sur as a tropical storm on Thursday. The official track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models. Although Bud has an impressive upper-level outflow pattern and is forecast to remain in very low wind shear conditions for the next 48 hours, the cyclone will be moving over cooling SSTs of 26C or less and ocean heat content values near zero. This should result in significant cold upwelling beneath the cyclone, which may already be happening based on erosion of the northern eyewall noted in recent SSMI/S microwave satellite imagery. Due to the expected poor oceanic conditions and upwelling, rapid weakening is forecast to begin shortly and continue through the remainder of the forecast period. By 96 hours, Bud is expected to be inland or near the western coast of mainland Mexico, and likely have dissipated by 120 hours over northwestern Mexico. However, a 120h point has been priovided for continuity purposes. The official intensity forecast is close to a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. Based on the forecast track and 34-kt wind radii, a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur on the next advisory package. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 18.4N 108.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 18.9N 108.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 19.6N 109.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 21.6N 109.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 24.4N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 28.5N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/1200Z 32.1N 111.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-06-12 16:57:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 121457 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 1500 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 25(36) 23(59) X(59) X(59) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) 1(20) X(20) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 20(29) 24(53) 1(54) X(54) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 28(38) 3(41) X(41) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 10(22) 1(23) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 1(15) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) X(16) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 13 62(75) 13(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 20N 110W 50 1 16(17) 23(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 20N 110W 64 X 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 18(20) 7(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-12 16:57:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD WEAKENING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 the center of Bud was located near 18.4, -108.4 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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