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Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 12
2018-06-12 16:57:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 121457 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 ...BUD WEAKENING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 108.4W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in southern Baja California Sur, Mexico, should monitor the progress of Bud. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 108.4 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow north-northwestward motion is expected later today through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud will be approaching Baja California Sur on Thursday and near or over Baja California Sur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further weakening, possibly rapid at times, is expected during the next 48 hours, and Bud is forecast to weaken below hurricane intensity by Wednesday night. However, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it approaches Baja California Sur on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across much of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through Thursday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days and will begin to affect the southern Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-06-12 16:57:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 121457 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 1500 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... MEXICO... SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BUD. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 108.4W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 108.4W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.9N 108.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.6N 109.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 21.6N 109.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.4N 110.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 111.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 32.1N 111.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 108.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Bud Graphics
2018-06-12 10:42:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Jun 2018 08:42:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Jun 2018 09:25:38 GMT
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-06-12 10:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120838 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Bud has been maintaining a well-defined eye for the past several hours but recent satellite images suggest some loss of definition. The current intensity is set to 115 kt in agreement with a Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB. Even though Bud is currently a powerful hurricane, it is going to pass over ocean waters of progressively decreasing heat content and lower SSTs. Therefore, weakening is likely. Gradual weakening should commence later today, but by Wednesday the rate of weakening should increase as the ocean becomes significantly less conducive. The official intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus guidance IVCN, however the corrected/smart consensus models HCCA and the Florida State University Superensemble show a more rapid decline in intensity than shown here. Bud is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by the time it reaches mainland Mexico. Bud's movement has continued to exhibit a trochoidal oscillation, which is typical of major hurricanes. Smoothing through these trochoidal wobbles gives an estimated motion that is the same as in the previous advisory, or 315/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning is essentially unchanged. Bud is moving between a large mid-level anticyclone centered near the United States/Mexico border and the circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta. Over the next day or so, increased ridging to the north of Bud should result in a slowing of the forward motion of the tropical cyclone. Later, a trough off the southern California and northern Baja California Peninsula coasts should cause Bud to turn to the north with some increase in forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the previous one, and in good agreement with the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 18.1N 108.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 18.5N 108.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 19.9N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 20.9N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 23.4N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 26.7N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 31.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-06-12 10:37:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 120837 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0900 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 17(25) 32(57) 2(59) X(59) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) X(19) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 14(21) 33(54) 2(56) X(56) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 22(30) 8(38) 1(39) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 1(18) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 1(17) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 2 45(47) 30(77) 8(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) 20N 110W 50 X 5( 5) 19(24) 13(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 11(13) 14(27) 4(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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