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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 16A
2018-06-13 19:56:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131755 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1200 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ...BUD WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 108.8W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...90 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 108.8 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. Bud is forecast to accelerate northward on Thursday and continue that motion into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur late Thursday and move over the Gulf of California later on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (90 km/h) with higher gusts. Although additional weakening is expected during the next day or so, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Thursday evening. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-13 17:03:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 15:03:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 15:25:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-06-13 16:57:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131457 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Bud has continued to rapidly weaken due to significant upwelling of colder water beneath the cyclone, resulting in a pronounced erosion of the deep convection in the inner-core region. Sea-surface temperature data from U-Miami RSMAS indicate that Bud has churned up a cold wake that is least 3 deg C cooler than the surrounding ocean temperatures. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on average of T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Bud has been wobbling slowly about a north-northwestward track of about 340/04 kt for the past 12 h, and that is the motion used for this advisory. A deep-layer ridge located over the southwestern United States that has been partly blocking Bud's poleward trek is expected to slowly weaken and shift eastward during the next 72 h, giving way to an approaching mid-latitude trough. The increasing southerly flow between the ridge and the approaching trough will gradually induce a more northward component of motion by Thursday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Friday. No change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast, and the new advisory is similar to the previous one and lies along the eastern edge of the model guidance envelope. Now that Bud has weakened to a tropical storm, significant upwelling beneath the cyclone should abate somewhat. However, Bud will be moving over sub-26C SSTs within the next 6-12 h, which will act to keep the atmosphere only marginally conducive for the formation of significant convection despite the vertical wind shear remaining quite favorable at only around 5 kt. A gradual spin down of Bud's circulation is expected until landfall occurs on southern Baja California Sur, followed by more significant erosion of the wind field on Friday due to cyclone interacting with the mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the Decay-SHIPS intensity model, and is slightly below the intensity consensus models. Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is still anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur in 36-48 hours. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 20.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 21.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 22.4N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 24.2N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 29.3N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 17/1200Z 35.5N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-13 16:57:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 the center of Bud was located near 19.4, -108.8 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 16
2018-06-13 16:57:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131456 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 108.8W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for southern Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to La Paz, including Cabo San Lucas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 108.8 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. Bud is forecast to accelerate northward on Thursday and continue that motion into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud will cross southern Baja California Sur late Thursday and move over the Gulf of California later on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Although additional weakening is expected during the next day or so, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Thursday evening. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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