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Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)

2018-06-12 04:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...BUD A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 the center of Bud was located near 17.6, -107.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

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Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 10

2018-06-12 04:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 120241 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 ...BUD A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 107.6W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in southern Baja California Sur, Mexico, should monitor the progress of Bud. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 107.6 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and on Tuesday. A slow north-northwestward motion is forecast late Tuesday through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud will approach southern Baja California Sur on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 hours, but weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday and continue through Thursday while Bud approaches southern Baja California Sur. Bud is forecast to weaken below hurricane intensity by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across much of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches into Tuesday afternoon. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days and will begin to affect the southern Baja California Peninsula on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Bud Forecast Advisory Number 10

2018-06-12 04:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 120241 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BUD. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.6W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.6W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.1N 107.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.8N 108.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.4N 108.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.2N 109.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.4N 110.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 30.0N 110.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 107.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2018-06-12 04:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 120241 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 28(40) 5(45) 1(46) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 25(36) 6(42) X(42) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 10(26) 1(27) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 2 13(15) 32(47) 19(66) 7(73) X(73) X(73) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 7(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 5( 6) 12(18) 9(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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