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Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-12 10:37:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 the center of Bud was located near 18.1, -108.2 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 11
2018-06-12 10:37:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 120837 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 ...BUD NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 108.2W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in southern Baja California Sur, Mexico, should monitor the progress of Bud. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 108.2 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a slow north-northwestward motion is forecast late today through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud will be near southern Baja California Sur on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is expected to begin later today and continue through Thursday while Bud approaches southern Baja California Sur. Bud is forecast to weaken below hurricane intensity by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across much of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through Thursday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days and will begin to affect the southern Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-06-12 10:37:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 120837 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0900 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BUD. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 108.2W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 108.2W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.5N 108.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.9N 109.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.9N 109.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.4N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 26.7N 111.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 31.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Bud Graphics
2018-06-12 04:43:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Jun 2018 02:43:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Jun 2018 03:25:48 GMT
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-06-12 04:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120242 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Bud has been sending mixed signals this evening regarding its intensity. On one hand, the eye has been warming and become more distinct in infrared satellite imagery. On the other hand, the central dense overcast has been shrinking, and temperatures of the convective cloud tops have been warming as well. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T5.5/102 kt while the objective ADT peaked at 6.5/127 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 110 kt as a compromise of these values. Bud appears to be going through a trochoidal oscillation, but the longer-term motion estimate is northwestward, or 315/6 kt. The hurricane is moving between a large mid-level high centered near the U.S./Mexico border and Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta, but with the ridge directly to its north, Bud's forward speed is expected to slow down to 4-5 kt for the next 48 hours. After that time, a developing mid- to upper-level trough off the California coast will cause Bud to turn northward and accelerate across the Baja California Peninsula. The track models are tightly clustered, with the only subtle outlier being the ECMWF, which is a little slower and to the west of the other models. The NHC forecast is closest to the TVCX multi-model consensus and not too different from the previous forecast. Since vertical shear is forecast to remain low for the next 3 days or so and there is plenty of atmospheric moisture, the biggest limiting factor on intensification appears to be low oceanic heat content. Bud has reached an area where waters of 26C or warmer only extend 20 meters or less below the ocean surface. Upwelling of colder water is likely due to the hurricane's expected slow motion, and the colder water will likely induce a rather quick weakening trend. The HCCA and Florida State Superensemble show the most dramatic drop-off in winds, while the SHIPS model maintains Bud's intensity for another 24 hours or so before showing much weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is between these two scenarios, with Bud expected to fall below hurricane intensity near the 48-hour mark (late Wednesday). Continued weakening is expected as Bud approaches and moves across the southern Baja California Peninsula, and the cyclone is likely to be a remnant low over the Mexican state of Sonora by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 17.6N 107.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 18.1N 107.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 18.8N 108.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 19.4N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 20.2N 109.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 22.4N 110.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 25.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 30.0N 110.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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