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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-10 10:40:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD STRENGTHENS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 the center of Bud was located near 13.4, -102.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 3
2018-06-10 10:40:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 100840 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 ...BUD STRENGTHENS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 102.6W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 102.6 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion with some slowing of forward speed is expected through Tuesday. This track will keep the core of Bud well off the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Bud is expected to become a hurricane late tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Bud will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next 2 to 3 days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-06-10 10:39:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 100839 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0900 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 102.6W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 102.6W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.5N 103.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.8N 105.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.5N 107.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.7N 108.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 22.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 102.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-10 04:33:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Jun 2018 02:33:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Jun 2018 02:33:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-06-10 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100232 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018 The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized during the past several hours. Satellite imagery shows several curved bands of deep convection developing around the center while the upper-level outflow is gradually improving. Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have increased, and a TAFB classification of T2.5 supports upgrading the depression to a tropical storm with 35-kt winds in this advisory. Tropical Storm Bud is expected to be over warm waters and embedded within light shear for the next 3 days or so. These conditions favor strengthening, which could be even more than what is indicated in the NHC forecast given the high RI indices in the SHIPS model. Nevertheless, most of the guidance forecast strengthening, and the official forecast very closely follows the HCCA and FSSE intensity models. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula. Bud is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 9 kt. The cyclone is currently steered by the flow around the periphery of a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. However, Bud is expected to reach the western portion of the ridge, and then its core should move toward the northwest and north off the southwestern coast of Mexico and toward the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, which significantly increases the confidence in the official forecast. Although Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast of Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of the coast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 12.9N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 13.8N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.9N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 18.0N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 19.5N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 21.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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