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Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 6A
2018-06-11 07:56:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 110555 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 100 AM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 ...BUD QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 105.6W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 105.6 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds are expected to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico during the next few days. Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is forecast to continue strengthening for the next 24 hours or so, and it could become a major hurricane later today. Slow weakening is expected to begin by early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across much of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches into Tuesday afternoon. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Bud Graphics
2018-06-11 04:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Jun 2018 02:37:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Jun 2018 03:34:45 GMT
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-06-11 04:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110236 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Satellite data suggest that Bud is strengthening. Shortwave infrared images and an SSMIS pass from a few hours ago indicate that Bud's inner core and banding features are becoming better defined, and an eye feature has recently become evident in most satellite channels. However, deep convection is not yet symmetric with the strongest convection remaining to the east of the center. The 00Z Dvorak classifications ranged from 55 to 75 kt, and the initial intensity is set to 70 kt, closer to the high end of the range given the improved structure of the inner core during the past several hours. Bud is moving northwestward at 9 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This general heading with a decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next few days. Some of the models show Bud stalling on Tuesday or Wednesday as the steering currents weaken between the ridge to the north of the hurricane and a developing mid- to upper-level low to its west. After that time, the mid- to upper-level low is expected to weaken, allowing Bud to resume a northwestward to north-northwestward motion toward the Baja California peninsula. The track model guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the various consensus aids. This prediction is largely an update of the previous one. A recent 37 GHz GMI microwave pass indicated a closed ring around the eye, which is often a precursor of rapid intensification. Based on this structure and conducive environmental conditions, rapid intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours. This forecast though, unlike the previous one, does call for slow weakening beyond 24 hours as the expected slow motion of Bud could cause cool water to upwell, ending the strengthening trend. More significant weakening is predicted to begin in 2 to 3 days when Bud tracks over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast is above the guidance in the short term, given the aforementioned signals of intensification, but falls in line with the guidance thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 16.0N 104.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 16.7N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 17.5N 106.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 18.0N 107.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 18.4N 107.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 19.9N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 21.7N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 24.1N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-11 04:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY WHILE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 the center of Bud was located near 16.0, -104.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 6
2018-06-11 04:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 110236 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 ...BUD FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY WHILE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 104.9W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 104.9 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds are expected to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is forecast to strengthen rapidly during the next 24 hours or so, but slow weakening is expected to begin by late Monday or early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across much of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches into Tuesday afternoon. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and landslides. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Monday afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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