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Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-08-09 16:53:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 091453 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 Franklin continues to become better organized, with increasing inner-core convection and banding features. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Observations from the aircraft indicate that the central pressure is falling, which presages intensification. Radar observations from the NOAA aircraft indicate that a well-defined eyewall has not yet developed, however. The tropical cyclone will continue to traverse SSTs of near 30 deg C until landfall, with northerly shear possibly impeding strengthening. However, the only evidence of this shear at this time is a slight restriction of the upper-level outflow over the northern portion of the circulation. Given the otherwise favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment, additional strengthening is forecast up to landfall. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance. Center fixes from the aircraft give a generally westward motion, or 270/11 kt. A large mid-level high pressure system to the north of Franklin should maintain the generally westward track until landfall in eastern Mexico. A slightly more southward motion could occur while the center crosses the coast, due to interaction with the topography of Mexico. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 20.2N 93.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 20.1N 95.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 19.7N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Franklin (AT2/AL072017)
2017-08-09 16:52:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRANKLIN ALMOST A HURRICANE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 the center of Franklin was located near 20.2, -93.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Franklin Public Advisory Number 12
2017-08-09 16:52:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 091452 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 ...FRANKLIN ALMOST A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 93.9W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Puerto Dos Bocas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Puerto Dos Bocas * The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 93.9 West. Franklin is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through today. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Luis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Mexico by this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Franklin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2017-08-09 16:52:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 09 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 091452 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 1500 UTC WED AUG 09 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PESCA MX 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPICO MX 34 12 8(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) TUXPAN MX 34 51 25(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) TUXPAN MX 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 53 21(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) VERACRUZ MX 50 4 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) VERACRUZ MX 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Advisory Number 12
2017-08-09 16:51:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 09 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 091451 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 1500 UTC WED AUG 09 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF PUERTO DOS BOCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO RIO PANUCO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO PUERTO DOS BOCAS * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 93.9W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 40SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 93.9W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.1N 95.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.7N 97.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 93.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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