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Tropical Storm Franklin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2017-08-09 04:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 09 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 090253 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 0300 UTC WED AUG 09 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PESCA MX 34 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) TAMPICO MX 34 X 21(21) 14(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) TUXPAN MX 34 2 36(38) 38(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) TUXPAN MX 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VERACRUZ MX 34 2 32(34) 21(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 9 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MERIDA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Advisory Number 10
2017-08-09 04:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 09 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090253 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 0300 UTC WED AUG 09 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SABANCUY TO EAST OF PUERTO DE VERACRUZ. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CELESTUN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO RIO PANUCO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO CELESTUN * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO RIO PANUCO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 91.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......160NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 91.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 90.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 93.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.4N 95.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 110SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.0N 97.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 91.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Franklin Graphics
2017-08-09 01:48:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Aug 2017 23:48:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Aug 2017 21:25:05 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Franklin (AT2/AL072017)
2017-08-09 01:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRANKLIN EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 the center of Franklin was located near 20.3, -90.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Franklin Public Advisory Number 9A
2017-08-09 01:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 082346 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 700 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 ...FRANKLIN EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 90.9W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Sabancuy * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located over the Bay of Campeche near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 90.9 West. Franklin is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A mainly westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will move westward across the Bay of Campeche tonight and Wednesday, and be near the coast of mainland Mexico within the state of Veracruz Wednesday night or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A strengthening trend is likely to begin now that the center is over water, and Franklin could be near hurricane intensity at landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface reports from Campeche, Mexico, is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible across northern portions of Belize and northern portions of Guatemala. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions may be occurring over portions of the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area through Wednesday morning. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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