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Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 8

2017-08-08 16:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 081433 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 Franklin's center continues to move over the land mass of the Yucatan Peninsula. Since this area is relatively flat, only slow weakening is likely occurring. The morning sounding from Merida, located over northwest Yucatan, showed winds near 40 kt just above the surface. Assuming that these winds are coming down to the surface somewhere within the circulation, the initial intensity is estimated to be 40 kt. Some additional weakening should occur as long as the center remains over land. A restrengthening trend is forecast to begin when the center moves into the Bay of Campeche later today or tonight. Even though Franklin will be moving over very high SSTs while over the Bay of Campeche, the global models show northerly shear affecting the cyclone as it nears the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico. Although this shear could impede intensification, Franklin could be near hurricane intensity when it nears the coast late Wednesday. Therefore, it is prudent to maintain the Hurricane Watch. The motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of Franklin over the next couple of days. This should cause the tropical cyclone to move west-northwestward to westward until its second landfall. The official track forecast is similar to the ECMWF solution and to the previous NHC forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 19.6N 89.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 20.0N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 09/1200Z 20.3N 93.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 20.4N 95.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 20.3N 97.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Summary for Tropical Storm Franklin (AT2/AL072017)

2017-08-08 16:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 the center of Franklin was located near 19.6, -89.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Franklin Public Advisory Number 8

2017-08-08 16:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081432 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 ...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 89.6W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Yucatan Peninsula from east of Rio Lagartos and southward to Chetumal. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Sabancuy * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 89.6 West. Franklin is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will move into the Bay of Campeche later today, move westward across the Bay of Campeche tonight and Wednesday, and be near the coast of mainland Mexico Wednesday night or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is likely until the center moves back over water, and strengthening is expected thereafter until landfall occurs in mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible across northern portions of Belize and northern portions of Guatemala. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely still occurring over portions of the northern and western Yucatan peninsula. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area today and tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Advisory Number 8

2017-08-08 16:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 08 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 081432 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 1500 UTC TUE AUG 08 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO RIO PANUCO... AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM EAST OF RIO LAGARTOS AND SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO RIO PANUCO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO LAGARTOS TO SABANCUY * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO RIO PANUCO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SABANCUY TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 89.6W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 89.6W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 89.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.0N 91.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.3N 93.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.4N 95.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.3N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 89.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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