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Tropical Storm Franklin Public Advisory Number 11
2017-08-09 10:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090838 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 ...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MODIFIED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 92.7W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico north of Rio Panuco to Barra del Tordo. The Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del Carmen * The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Franklin is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The Mexican automated station at Cayo Arenas, located to the north-northeast of the center, recently reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Mexico by this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Franklin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-08-09 10:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 090838 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PESCA MX 34 3 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TAMPICO MX 34 5 27(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) TUXPAN MX 34 6 68(74) 8(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) TUXPAN MX 50 X 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) TUXPAN MX 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 4 30(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FRONTERA MX 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MERIDA MX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Advisory Number 11
2017-08-09 10:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090837 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF RIO PANUCO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO RIO PANUCO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.1W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 96.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 98.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Franklin Graphics
2017-08-09 07:58:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Aug 2017 05:58:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Aug 2017 03:24:29 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Franklin (AT2/AL072017)
2017-08-09 07:56:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRANKLIN CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 the center of Franklin was located near 20.4, -92.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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