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Tropical Storm Franklin Graphics
2017-08-08 22:38:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Aug 2017 20:38:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Aug 2017 20:38:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-08-08 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 082033 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 Visible satellite images and surface synoptic data indicate that the center of the cyclone is nearing the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The overall cloud pattern remains fairly well organized, with distinct banding features and well-defined upper-level outflow. Based on the assumption that only slow weakening has been occurring, the current intensity is set at 35 kt. Franklin should begin to strengthen very soon, when its center moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. The dynamical guidance indicates that north-northeasterly shear will begin to affect the tropical cyclone when it moves farther west in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, which should be an impediment for strengthening. The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS and LGEM guidance but close to the intensity model consensus. Given that it is quite possible that Franklin could become a hurricane by the time of landfall, it is prudent to maintain the Hurricane Watch for the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico. The motion continues west-northwestward or 290/10 kt. A mid-tropospheric high pressure area near the northwestern Gulf coast should cause a generally westward motion over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous ones, and not far from the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 20.2N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 20.5N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 09/1800Z 20.6N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 20.7N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 20.4N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Franklin (AT2/AL072017)
2017-08-08 22:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOON... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 the center of Franklin was located near 20.2, -90.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Franklin Public Advisory Number 9
2017-08-08 22:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 082033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 ...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOON... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 90.3W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Sabancuy * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 90.3 West. Franklin is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A mainly westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will move into the Bay of Campeche in a few hours, move westward across the Bay of Campeche tonight and Wednesday, and be near the coast of mainland Mexico Wednesday night or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A strengthening trend is likely to begin when the center moves over water, and Franklin could be near hurricane intensity at landfall in the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible across northern portions of Belize and northern portions of Guatemala. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions may be occurring over portions of the northern and western Yucatan peninsula. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area through Wednesday morning. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Franklin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2017-08-08 22:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 08 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 082033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 2100 UTC TUE AUG 08 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PESCA MX 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPICO MX 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 8(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X 5( 5) 47(52) 15(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 6( 6) 30(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 2 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MERIDA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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