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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2013-09-14 04:49:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140249 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 8 18 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 6 14 23 29 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 91 73 56 42 NA NA NA HURRICANE 3 11 12 11 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 10 10 9 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 5 27(32) 16(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) L CARDENAS 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) L CARDENAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ZIHUATANEJO 34 7 18(25) 9(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 3

2013-09-14 04:49:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140249 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.5W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.5W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 102.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 102.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.1N 103.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.1N 103.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 102.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics

2013-09-14 01:51:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 23:51:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 21:09:43 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)

2013-09-14 01:47:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MANUEL GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY SATURDAY... As of 5:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 the center of MANUEL was located near 15.4, -102.4 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 2A

2013-09-14 01:47:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 132347 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 500 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...MANUEL GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 102.4W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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