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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-14 13:50:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL NOW MOVING NORTHWARD... As of 5:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of MANUEL was located near 15.8, -102.4 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 4A
2013-09-14 13:50:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141150 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 500 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...MANUEL NOW MOVING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 102.4W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. MANUEL IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH...66 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED BY A MEXICAN NAVY STATION IN PUERTO VICENTE GUERRERO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-14 11:18:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 09:02:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 09:08:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-09-14 11:01:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140901 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 9 17 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 6 14 24 26 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 91 73 55 44 NA NA NA HURRICANE 3 11 13 12 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 10 11 10 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) 11(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 6 27(33) 13(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) L CARDENAS 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ZIHUATANEJO 34 6 18(24) 7(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-14 11:01:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON ITS APPROACH TO MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of MANUEL was located near 15.3, -102.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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