je.st

Home › manuel

Tag: manuel

Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)

2013-09-14 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TORRENTIAL RAINS OCCURRING IN MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of MANUEL was located near 16.2, -102.4 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tags: summary manuel storm tropical

Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 5

2013-09-14 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...TORRENTIAL RAINS OCCURRING IN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 102.4W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. BASED ON A SHIP REPORT...THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE HAS ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT OF ABOUT 8 INCHES OF RAIN IN EASTERN OAXACA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number public manuel storm

Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2013-09-14 16:47:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 141447 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 12 21 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 4 13 38 33 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 91 76 45 40 NA NA NA HURRICANE 5 10 5 6 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 5 9 4 6 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 35KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 13(15) 12(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 2 20(22) 13(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 49 23(72) 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) L CARDENAS 50 4 12(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) L CARDENAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 36 9(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ZIHUATANEJO 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number speed wind manuel

Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 5

2013-09-14 16:47:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 141446 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 102.4W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 102.4W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 102.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.3N 103.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.5N 104.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 102.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number manuel storm advisory