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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 4

2013-09-14 11:01:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140901 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.4W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.4W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 102.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 103.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 104.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 102.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 4

2013-09-14 11:01:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140901 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...MANUEL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON ITS APPROACH TO MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 102.4W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. MANUEL HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-09-14 10:56:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140856 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL IS ORGANIZING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A LARGE CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH MANUEL APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN IT WAS EARLIER...ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED... SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. MANUEL HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MODELS...THE OVERALL THEME IS THAT MANUEL...AND THE LARGE-SCALE GYRE THAT IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN...WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY. THAT GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.0N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.3N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 16/0600Z 19.3N 104.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics

2013-09-14 07:46:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 05:46:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 03:08:01 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)

2013-09-14 07:43:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MANUEL NEARLY STATIONARY A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 11:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 the center of MANUEL was located near 15.2, -102.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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